Season Pre-view: ACT Brumbies

Ahh the Brumbies. General consensus it seems has the Brumbies taking over from the Waratahs as the team we at TWF love to hate. Or maybe its just me. Either way, here are my thoughts on the Brumbies for 2011. I hope you enjoy the read......

Form from 2010
The Brumbies pulled up 6th in 2010. They were only one win off making the finals. Much like the Wallabies, they had very erratic form through the season. A promising start to the season with four wins in five games was followed by some very patchy performances. This was mostly due to the loss of the resolute George Smith due to injury; however other players were guilty of not living up to their potential and struggled to make an impact. Having been dubbed ‘Real Madrid’ pre-season and tipped to be potential winners in 2010, you would have say 6th place was a disappointment for the Brumbies.

Comings and Goings
The Brumbies side has an academy flavour in it this season. Where everyone was talking about the arrival of stars Matt Giteau and Rocky Elsom last year, the new recruits of this year may as well read as a who’s who of no-names. Most of them have been promoted from the Brumbies academy. This is the case for back-rowers Colby Faingaa and Michael Hooper, who both played a couple of games last year, as well as centre Ed Stubbs and scrum-half Nick White. Australian U20 and 7s sensation, Robbie Coleman, joins the Brumbies and, if he makes the field, is worth keeping an eye on. The only experienced campaigner to come in 2011 will be Julian Salvi. While his return will soften the blow of the loss of George Smith, he simply isn’t in the same league. Dan Palmer is an interesting signing. Palmer joins the team from the Waratahs and the burly young prop has the potential to snatch the tight-head spot from Solazy (SalesI) Ma’afu. Probably the most noteworthy acquisition, however, is that of Stephen Larkham as attack coach. You get the sense that Larkham wouldn’t be as good a coach as he was a player, however even if he is only half as good he will be a big benefit for the Brumbies.

You can go past George Smith in terms of the departures. George has devoted the last 10 years of his playing career to the Brumbies and received 9 player’s player of the year awards. Stirling Mortlock is the other big name departee. Mortlock has captained both the Brumbies and the Wallabies and his enthusiasm and experience when fit will be sorely missed. Among the other players moving onto greener pastures are Justin Harrison, Alfie Mafi, Guy Shepherdson, Sitaleki Timani, Afusipa Taumoepeau, John Ulugia, and Henry Vanderglas. Not at all a bad mix of experience and young talent. Admittedly a couple of these guys have had repeated injury concerns. The Brumbies may rue the loss of Taumoepeau (Rebels) and Mafi (Force) if those players can get their injury problems under control in 2011.

Players to watch out for...
The Wallaby number 4 jersey is wide open and up for grabs in 2011. The Brumbies true contender in this area is the flaming ranga himself, Peter Kimlin. Kimlin sat out from 2010 due to injury and has since injured himself playing for the Exeter Chiefs in the UK. He might take time to return to form, but Kimlin is worth keeping an eye on. He has hardened up from a life time of being called ‘ginger ninja’, ‘pippy-long stockings’ and ‘ginger nuts’. He is ready to turn that childhood pain into aggression on the rugby pitch. He would’ve been a Wallaby again this year had he maintained his form from 2009, and if he can return to that level, he will be again for the Rugby World Cup. He is a big plus for the Brumbies as they lack forwards in the Kimlin mould.

With no rugby on at the moment in the Southern Hemisphere journalists are clutching at straws to get a article down. Speculation is rife about who is leaving and where they are going to. Giteau? Barnes? Cooper? Can Australian rugby cope without them? Some might say that the answer to that question is Matt Toomua. The highly rated 10 has lived in the shadow of players like Beale and Cooper, thankfully not thrown in the deep end like they were. With inside backs likely to thin out after this year, Toomua has a box seat to get in there are fill the void. The form of Toomua will be a good insight to how healthy the Wallabies' depth is.

The Weaknesses
The Brumbies lack a hard edge. Kimlin aside, their second rowers lack grunt and aggression. Mark Chisholm is an embarrassment for a guy of his dimensions and athleticism. Their back-row definitely prefer to play it loose with Hoiles acting primarily linkman to the backs and Elsom a wannabe winger (whinger?). Where these guys are dangerous where the game opens up and there is a lot of running, they are vulnerable when things get tighter and the game turns into an arm wrestle. I have a feeling that these guys will be the Rebel’s first scalp. Things have been made much more where the forwards are concerned with lingering injuries to both Elsom and Hoiles; two-thirds of the Brumbies backrow and their ‘leadership group’ (lame!). Both players will be lucky to make the first few games of the season and a bad start is the last thing the Brumbies want. An injury to loosehead prop Jerry Yanuyanutawa has also raised questions about their front row stocks. Is their season already starting to unravel through injury?

The Brumbies of 2011 lack a bit of backline depth, too. Their first choice backline is an imposing proposition; however the cupboard becomes a little bit bare beyond this point. There is a bit of a lop-sided look to the Brumbies’ backline- too many Chiefs and not enough Indians. Plenty of talented inside backs, but not one experienced backline player over 100kgs. The Brumbies are geared to gallop, and it will be an impressive sight, but can they handle themselves if the game slows down to a trot.

A final concern for the Brumbies lies with their coaches. Considering the riches at his disposal last year, Andy Friend didn’t have a successful year. He hasn’t made his job any easier this year by appointing two rookie assistants in Stephen Larkham and Justin Harrison. Talented though they may have been as players, there is no guarantee that they will be any good as coaches. You can’t help but feel that this will be a problem area for the Brumbies.

The Strengths
Despite these weaknesses, the Brumbies do have a number of class players in their squad. On their day, five of their players could lay claim to a World XV spot. A further six test-capped players round out the squad. They also boast a range of talented youngsters, if perhaps a bit underdone. They have the kind of players who can mirror the style of rugby that the Wallabies play and arguably a comparatively better set-piece to back that up. The Brumbies are capable of wheeling out an all-Wallaby tight-five and should be among the most competitive teams in scrums and line-outs.

There is a further psychological strength to the Brumbies of 2011. For many of their players this will be a last chance at Super rugby and World Cup Glory. With players like Matt Giteau, Rocky Elsom, Stephen Moore and a number of others likely to depart for foreign shores at the end of the year, they may just have that extra incentive to make this year count. If they are within a sniff of the top 6 in the dying round of the competition, you can bet they will lift a gear or two to make it happen.

Prediction for 2011
Things are starting to look ominous for the Brumbies. Their depth looks to be tested in this expanded competition and I’m not sure they have enough to cover it. With Elsom and Hoiles likely to be out for the first few games, the Brumbies might suffer some early losses and never properly recover. I’m not predicting a good year for the Brumbies. I have them down for 10th.

James’ Brumbies XV

1. Ben Alexander
2. Stephen Moore
3. Dan Palmer
4. Peter Kimlin
5. Mark Chisholm
6. Rocky Elsom
7. Julian Salvi
8. Stephen Hoiles
9. Josh Valetine
10. Matt Toomua
11. Francis Fainifo
12. Matt Giteau
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
14. Henry Speight
15. Pat McCabe

Thoughts? Comments? How do you think the Brumbies will go?

Nice work, and i agree that the prop stocks are definitely a weakness in the Brumbies lineup, very slim depth there..

Five players in a World XV? Giteau and AAC at best, surely?

I presume the other three are Alexander, Moore and Elsom, but I'm sorry, they wouldn't get anywhere near a World XV.

I agree that the Brumbies look to have a talented XV, but the tested talent drops off quickly even in the bench. With a longer Super Rugby season and reports that the ARU may instruct teams not to play Wallabies who have minor knocks, the total squad strength should be tested even more this season.

Disclaimer: I'm working off the Brumbies website so have to assume player listing there is up to date...

Probably the biggest Prop problem isn't individual quality, more that you have Ma'afu and Palmer as specialist TH's and Alexander who (in my opinion at least) plays his best Rugby at TH.
Currently you are faced with playing a part time LH and a slightly lesser specialist TH with another specialist TH on the bench.
A big call for Alexander to expect 80 minutes every week, but you would be unlikely to pick Yanuyanutawa on the bench if the other two are available.
As Ma'afu would still at this stage be seen as the senior Prop of the two, I would be suggesting to Palmer to have a dabble at training on the other side of the scrum.

With Lealiifano now out I think we will likely see all sorts of movement in the #11, #14, #15, #21 and #22 jersey's, with Francis Fainifo, Henry Speight, Pat McCabe, Tyrone Smith, Andrew Smith, Afusipa Taumoepeau, Samu Wara and Ed Stubbs all in the mix with various strengths and weaknesses to their respective resume`.

#4 will be interesting, with Chapman and Hand competing with Noodles.

The rest of the team is quality and pretty much selects itself, the only question mark is what Bernies plans for Gits are.

With the inevitable injuries I think it could be a slippery slope for the Brumbies if they come to any of the key personnel.

4th of the Australian teams.

Perhaps I was being too generous Sheikh but I figured I needed to a little bit positive. I clarified it with 'on their day' to mean if they return to career best form. Maybe a lot of people won't agree with me but I happen to think that Adam Ashley Cooper is the best 13 in world rugby.

Again, maybe too generous with Moore and Alexander. Elsom hasn't been in form recently but before his return to the Wallabies he was going great guns.

No doubt Gits and AAC on form are worthy of their places in a World XV (even if Gits has only shown that form sporadically over the last four years).

Elsom on form may be the best 6 in Australia, but I'd still pick Kaino or Smith (and maybe Dusautoir) ahead of him, and I'd think about McCalman, Bonnaire, Croft or Ferris alongside Elsom.

It's hard to judge Elsom's form. He was tops back in 2008 but I think Kaino and Smith were out injured around that time.

It won't make a big difference early on. The Brumbies bye is in round 5 and I doubt he'll play before that.

Re Epsom and a world XV the soggy islanders seemed to think the sun shone out'n his nether regions on his return to Australia, they seem to be pretty harsh judges of anything southern hemisphere, so I'd suggest that 'on his day' isn't too much of a stretch. He's a bit like gits. If either of them play to potential, they could probably walk up start for any team in the world, but neither of them look close to catching their best form in the near future.