Planet Rugby Preview: Australia v South Africa
For South Africans, it's an hour of triumph. For the neutral, the Tri-Nations is heading for a big anti-climax. For Australians, it's going horribly south.
A New Zealand television channel played a clever collage of images this week, with Australia's most howling mistakes replayed, followed by Robbie Deans' instinctive reaction. The crestfallen nature of expressions, the deepening furrows upon the brow and the steady increase in both profanity and length of the whispered comments told a sorry tale indeed.
Deans' tenure began with such high hope, but it has slipped into a rut. Australia cannot buy a win even when on form and the longer the process of torture goes on the more the defeat will be mental as well as on the pitch. A side that loses consistently may end up not believing it can win, which is when you are in real trouble. A good few of Australia's errors last week were symptomatic of this malaise.
Excepting the brilliant Matt Giteau, who at times seemed to be taking the Boks on by himself, the Wallabies' best endeavour is coming up short. Change needed to be in the air. It has been.
The insertion of Will Genia into the scrum-half role is a change long overdue. Luke Burgess has had a miserable year in a Wallaby jersey, with any sort of rhythm between he and Giteau seeming more coincidence than intention. He'll bounce back, he's that sort of man, but his current form is dismal. Genia has been solid and unspectacular when he has come on in this series, which is perhaps what Australia needs right now.
Berrick Barnes' return is absolutely paramount to Giteau, who now has a handcuff option if he is closed down, as South Africa are sure to be looking to do better. It will also help Genia in crucial moments, with the two having developed a healthy understanding, often in adversity, in Queensland for the Reds.
Perhaps the most telling change is at hooker, where Deans appears to have become too concerned with the line-outs to care about the vast superiority of Stephen Moore's scrummaging to that of Tatafu Polota-Nau. Where line-outs against Botha and Matfield are concerned, you would do well to simply raise casualty estimates and get on with it, especially when your team is so short of top-class locks.
In fact, beyond Genia and Barnes, and perhaps the return of Drew Mitchell, Deans seems merely to have lost some faults, only to have them replaced by others. Truth is, Australia's current squad is missing a couple of extra X-factor players beyond Giteau and George Smith, without whom games like these are rarely winnable. The word 'transitional' is often overused, but given the number of youngsters now being thrown to the Lions in place of failing older heads, it appears Australia are very much in that sort of phase.
South Africa have that kind of X-factor player all over the place. There are some remarkable stats regarding experience around this squad, while the milestones just build up. When Jaque Fourie steps onto the turf, he'll become the seventh player of the starting XV to have 50 caps to his name. Surrounded by that kind of experience, comparative rookies like Morné Steyn simply can't fail to shine.
The line-out is the best in the world. The back row probably is as well. It's a hell of a centre combination. Bryan Habana is on the wing - they're even using him now. How is anyone supposed to cope with that, never mind Australia?
South Africa only really need one point to clinch the Tri-Nations. Mathematically it's two, but can you really see New Zealand nabbing two bonus-point wins against South Africa and Australia in their next two matches? Neither can we. But there will be an extra something pushing these Boks forwards, the same mission that has pushed them to the greatness they have achieved.
The desire to push back boundaries and set benchmarks is always what this team has been about. Two wins separate them from being the first team to claim a Tri-Nations clean sweep under the new extended format. Hamilton next week will be tougher, but for now there's Brisbane and a mentally exhausted Australia team to torture once more. On last week's form, there's little chance of a turnaround.
Ones to watch:
For Australia: Will Genia's has been a name long bandied about by Australian pundits as a beginning of a solution to Australia's woes. Australia have run in a few tries even when the half-back service has been awry, but can Genia deliver the kind of solid foundation Australia's backs need to be able to thrive?
For South Africa: Jean de Villiers' international future is cloudy as a result of his move to Munster and the dislocation of his game from South Africa. A stalwart of this side, his presence will be sorely missed, but a real buster of a performance here would remind his overlings just how hard he could be to replace.
Head to head: A tale of captaincy is also being writ here, with George Smith toiling in vain and John Smit revelling in one of his finest years yet (2007 will take some matching) while George Smith is Australia's fourth centurion - odds on to break George Gregan's world Test record if he keep going until NZ 2011 - but must be considering that fact ruefully in the light of his team's recent run. Both have shifted positions as their presence is too valuable to leave out of the mix, but can Smith find the leadership skills to help his side believe once more?
Recent results:
2009: South Africa won 32-25 in Perth
2009: South Africa won 29-17 in Cape Town
2008: South Africa won 53-8 in Johannesburg
2008: Australia won 27-15 in Durban
2008: Australia won 16-9 in Perth
2007: Australia won 25-17 in Sydney
2007: South Africa won 22-19 in Cape Town
2006: South Africa won 24-16 in Johannesburg
2006: Australia won 20-18 in Sydney
2006: Australia won 49-0 in Brisbane
2005: South Africa won 22-19 in Perth
2005: South Africa won 22-16 in Pretoria
2005: South Africa won 33-20 in Johannesburg
2005: Australia won 30-12 in Sydney
2004: South Africa won 23-19 in Durban
2004: Australia won 30-26 in Perth
Prediction: No way back for Australia. South Africa by ten!
The teams:
Australia: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (capt), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.
South Africa: 15 Ruan Pienaar, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Schalk Burger, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Frans Steyn .
Date: Saturday, September 5
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 20.05 (10.05 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
TMO: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
By Danny Stephens
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,2...536496,00.html
