Originally Posted by
James
History provides an interesting perspective to this weekend’s clash. The Reds come into this round at the top of the Super Rugby table, a position from which you would expect them to be favourites for the Super Rugby trophy. It is not often when the winner of the round-robin has failed to take out the tournament. A look at recent winners, the Crusaders, Bulls and Brumbies, shows that these three teams spent a lot of time thereabouts before winning their maiden trophies. The Reds come to the following conundrum: You will win if you top the table, but you can’t win unless you have finals experience. One, not unlikely, explanation is that the Reds will then end up dropping one, or both, of their final two games to fall in line with tradition. My money would be on the Force. But then that’s if you take the historical perspective.
Yet the conspiracy against the Reds doesn’t end there, however, with history showing that the away side has never won a Force vs. Reds match in Super Rugby. The away team has not even won a trial match between the two sides. In Perth, the Force have nothing short of blitzed the Reds. Two wins. 10 points. Reds going home with nothing. Now the past is the past, and history doesn’t always mean that much, but the Reds demonstrated last weekend, after prolonging the Brumbies’ winning streak in Brisbane, that history can’t always be ignored.
So we come into this weekend’s game with history favouring the Force, along with momentum and the injury gods. The Force enter the second last round of competition having just taken Australia’s first and only away scalp in New Zealand with our win over a sturdy Highlanders outfit. The backline has clicked, the team were able to make impact substitutions at the right time, and they proved to themselves and to their critics that they can close out matches. The team showed almost total domination in the final 20 minutes. We also come into this round with arguably the healthiest squad in the competition with only Pek Cowan and Cameron Shepherd ruled out. Most notably, James O’Connor is welcomed back at fullback, adding to the Force’s ever improving attack. This is a stark contrast to the Reds, who limp into this game on the back of a devastating loss that took a steep injury toll. The Reds currently have Beau Robinson, Digby Ioane, Mike Harris, Anthony Faingaa, Ben Lucas and a handful of others unavailable. Added to these woes is the increased pressure to get a win and cement that top spot. Conditions look good for a glorious Force win to round out the season.
The Teams
Ewen McKenzie is leaving naming his 22 until the 11th hour as a bit of a ‘psychological mind game’ with Richard Graham. Seems a bit like clutching at straws to me, but with quite a few Reds out, you probably can’t blame him.
Graham, on the other hand, has made a few changes to the team that faced off against the Highlanders. In the pack Matt Dunning takes the starting 3 jersey from Fairbrother, who moves to the bench, Richard Brown and Ben McCalman also make a straight swap at number 8. Both Dunning and Brown were highly influential off the bench last weekend, and Brown in particular will be itching to start against his home state and cause some havoc. In the backs, Brett Sheehan and James O’Connor return to the starting line-up. O’Connor shifts Pat Dellit to 13 and Mitch Inman to the bench, while Sheehan’s return sees Mark Swanepoel take a seat on the bench. Although it has drawn some criticism, moving Sheehan back into the starting side is a pretty fair decision. It is a tough ask having Swanepoel man up on the form halfback in Super Rugby, but no doubt he will take the field in the final quarter to try to swing momentum into our favour.
Wallaby Watch
There are always a couple of interesting clashes across the park when the gold jerseys are up for grabs. The most intriguing one for me is the battle between Nathan Charles and Saia Faingaa. Faingaa was 3rd in line after Moore and TPN; however his deficiencies in the scrum have left the door open. Charles is a far superior scrummager, and while he doesn’t quite get through as much work as Faingaa, he comes close and is less prone to ill-discipline or brain explosions. Can Charles sneak his way in? Watching Sam Wykes and Rob Simmons going hammer and tongs should also be a highlight. While Simmons looks likely this year, these two could be facing-off a lot over the coming years and will both strive to take the locking mantle of Nathan Sharpe. Other players who must be close to Robbie’s 40 man squad include the mercurial Radike Samo and the powerful Nick Cummins.
James Stannard and Kieran Longbottom also have the opportunity to give Robbie Deans something to think about.
Predicted Outcome:
After history, pressure is the key word for this clash. We’ve seen the Force pressure other sides in the scrum and at the breakdown and we can reasonably expect more of the same. But what about the line-out? The Crusaders showed that this could be a target with the Reds. Will Sharpie and co be able to disrupt their throw? What about our backline? Do we have enough in our pouch of tricks (not enough yet for a bag) to pressure the Reds enough to score a few tries? And how will the Reds deal with the pressure they place on themselves to take out pole position leading into the final round? Will they cope with all the enforced changes to their backline? I am not so sure. The past three years have seen some epic final home games for the Force (Brumbies ‘08, Highlanders ‘09, and Crusaders ‘10). We have a record of always taking top points against the Reds in Perth. I think this will continue. I think the Force boys will put in a performance that will have us in rapturous applause. Force by 20.
