Wallabies given a statistical chance
Wallabies given a statistical chance
c/o Rugby Heaven
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Former French five-eighth Thierry Lacroix has crunched the numbers and come to the surprise conclusion that the Wallabies should win this year's Rugby World Cup while world No.1 New Zealand has plenty to worry about.
The only concern for Australians is that his statistical analysis is based on history and not recent form.
Lacroix, the leading points scorer at the 1995 World Cup in South Africa with 112 points, analysed the points scoring records of the top five countries in the world - Australia, England, France, New Zealand and South Africa - at previous World Cups.
"I went through the World Cup statistics and at the end the first one is Australia," Lacroix told the rugbyexclusive.com website at a function in Sydney.
"First Australia, second England, third France, fourth South Africa and fifth New Zealand. I took penalties, total points and tries and the best scorer in each team.
"From a French point of view it is incredible that a country like Australia is the only one that has won two World Cups. It's incredible because rugby union is not the major sport here.
"Everyone criticises Australia for different reasons. I have followed Australia for a while now because I love this country and I try to understand why there is so much criticism of Australia. Why some coaches are sacked and why some players are not playing the best they can play."
But Lacroix said his statistics did not take into account the effects of home-ground advantage, which he believes influences refereeing decisions.
"My statistics say Australia is number one," Lacroix said. "Unfortunately for Australia, the next World Cup is in France. The host almost always goes to the final. We cannot go to the final with Australia. We will meet in the semi-final if everything goes right.
"The advantage will be with the ref. I played in 1991 and 1995 and I commentated on television in 1999 and 2003 and I realised for many reasons when you are the host you have some advantage with the referee.
"We start with a big advantage from the referee and that is very important."
Lacroix was confident the French would recover from their thrashing by New Zealand in a two Test series at home last November.
"The French are never so great as when their pride is hurt," Lacroix said. "That's why I'm sure we'll get in the right way for the World Cup."
Lacroix has not totally dismissed New Zealand's chances, but said the All Blacks had to overcome the psychological burden of failing at previous World Cups since 1987.
"Since 1987 they couldn't win the World Cup,' Lacroix said.
"The All Blacks have to work on the psychology point of view to handle the pressure and if they can do it, they will win because they are so far in front of everybody. But the World Cup is over six weeks, not a year. It is a different story."
Lacroix, who is married to an Australian, Abi, plans to move to Australia next year and set up his social program, Acadosport, to get kids back to school, through sport.
AAP
