Just some idle speculation

With the last round of pool matches approaching, there's plenty of room for speculation ....................

Pool A and B are sorted and we know who is likely to progress to the QF's as first and second in those pools. Pool C is virtually certain as well. But pool D is still open although one would expect that South Africa will finish top and Wales in second place. But it does depend upon the result of the last two matches in the pool ......

If Samoa beats RSA and Wales beat Fiji, then Pool D will end up with South Africa on top and Wales second with Samoa eliminated. This assumes none of the three teams get a bonus point so all three will be on 14 points and the positions are determined by points difference. If Samoa win they are unlikely to get a bonus point - RSA have only conceded one try so far in the competition (along with Australia and England). If Wales win and get a bonus point they could finish on top of the pool with 15 points. If RSA get a bonus point (or win) they finish top ............

So South Africa is looking likely to finish top with Wales in second place. But strange things can happen and facing Ireland and England on the way to the final must be a better proposition that Australia and NZ.

Which leads us to the key factor of match timings. South Africa play Samoa on Friday. Wales play Fiji on Sunday afternoon. It could be done and dusted before Wales take the field on Sunday. Or there again ........

Just some idle speculation. :)

I reckon Samoa can beat S.A. !!

SA are too strong, too clinical and too professional for Samoa and I don't think the Fijian side can repeat what they did in 2007. Scotland could still beat England and possibly prevent them from making the Qtrs. And Ireland have lost in the past to Italy. I think if Italy do well against the USA, then they could very well beat Ireland.

My QF predictions are:

Nz vs Arg
Eng vs Fra
SA vs Aus
Ire vs Wal


My SF predictions are:

Nz vs Aus
Eng vs Wal

Final: Eng vs Aus

Nz are favourites and I would pick them in the final, but I don't think they are in any better position now to handle the pressure/expectation than they were in 2007. It's groundhog day for them. Strolling through the pools, relatively easy qtr against Arg/Sco and then Aus in the SF.


EDIT

Saying that it's easy to get excited about SA when they've looked good against Fiji and Namibia. The only time they've been challenged they should have lost (v Wales). So maybe Samoa could challenge them?

S.A. are tired old veterans

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Originally Posted by Blackswan

If Samoa beats RSA and Wales beat Fiji, then Pool D will end up with South Africa on top and Wales second with Samoa eliminated. This assumes none of the three teams get a bonus point so all three will be on 14 points and the positions are determined by points difference.

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If Samoa beats RSA and they all end on the same points, then Samoa will be on top.
The world cup rules state:

If at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

1.The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked; - That will be Samoa in this case
2.The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
3.The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
4.The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
5.The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
6.Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011.

Yeah but Samoa are going to have to deny SA a losing bonus point or get a 4T bonus for themselves. I hope Fiji give Wales a good run for their money.

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Originally Posted by Happy

I reckon Samoa can beat S.A. !!

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I reckon you're onto something happy

I think it will be a great game, if the Samoans can hold off in defense, and not give steyn too many penalties; their attack will see them with the win
Posted via Mobile Device

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Originally Posted by tdevil

1.The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked; - That will be Samoa in this case

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No it will be Wales as we have already beaten Samoa.

It all comes down to Bonus points. Both Samoa and Wales are on 10 points and SA on 14. If Samoa wins with a bonus point against SA they will go to 15 points and SA stay on 14 is they don’t get the BP. If wales win without the Bonus point they will be 3rd overall as they will be equal with SA on 14 but SA will go through as they won there match. But if Wales win with a BP they will be top and Samoa second (all very hypothetical but anything can happen really) Or Samoa Lose to SA and this all was for nothing. Bring on the Bokke in the qrts!

My SF predictions are:

Nz vs Aus
Eng vs Wal

Final: Eng vs Aus


I do hope you are totally right....for the good of the game and pure selfish reasons ofcourse..:)

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Originally Posted by tdevil

If Samoa beats RSA and they all end on the same points, then Samoa will be on top.

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No they won't.

If you read my post a little more carefully, with no team earning bonus points then there will be three teams on the same number of points (14). It then becomes impossible to apply the first criteria with RSA having beaten Wales, wales having beaten Samoa and samoa beting RSA. So the second criteria will apply - ie points difference.

My bad

F*#k all that nonsense- Scotland could put out England and really piss off 53 million w*#nkers. Not bitter and twisted but they started it in 1745 after hiring a bunch of mercenaries to beat us at Culloden. then they banned the kilt. then they introduced the highland clearance (where every decent law abiding scot had to make way for sheep to graze to make way for the English lairds to make money). Then they introduced the poll tax, David Becham, Posh Spice and loads of irrelevant bollocks. Hah, feel better now. Bring on Saturday- we want the win!!!!

Good rant Doobie........shame your boys are going to get rooted

Shouldn't you be in bed GIGS? We're allowed to dream for 3 weeks every 4 years. Still loving my 3 weeks :)

PS- the mention of you should be in bed is in relation to KL- so much nightlife and the expat pubs atmosphere is brilliant!! Gridiron pub in Bangsar is the place to be for the Scotland England game. 21 screens, the best curry house you can imagine next door plus lots of tottie walking around... man it's sooooo good :)
plus the bars are kid friendly which makes the tottie only watchable. but oh sooo watchable :)

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Originally Posted by doobie69

... man it's sooooo good :)
plus the bars are kid friendly which makes the tottie only watchable. but oh sooo watchable :)

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but can you get tatties with your haggis ?

Come to think of it, haggis don't travel well. They seem to pine for the heather they're accustomed to running around. Which probably sums up the Scottish backs at this tournament - only good for running around the heather, not the opposition.;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doobie69

F*#k all that nonsense- Scotland could put out England and really piss off 53 million w*#nkers. Not bitter and twisted but they started it in 1745 after hiring a bunch of mercenaries to beat us at Culloden. then they banned the kilt. then they introduced the highland clearance (where every decent law abiding scot had to make way for sheep to graze to make way for the English lairds to make money). Then they introduced the poll tax, David Becham, Posh Spice and loads of irrelevant bollocks. Hah, feel better now. Bring on Saturday- we want the win!!!!

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That'd be the Battle of Culloden, fought in April 1746 by the English and Lowland Scots against the Jacobites (Highland Scots) lead by an Italian born pretender with French and Irish support.

Which side had the mercenaries? ;)