After an annus horribilis, can Australian rugby bounce back in 2024?
From Here
After what can be fairly described as annus horribilis in 2023, can Australian rugby bounce back in 2024?
The governance
Rugby Australia has already made one big move, deposing Hamish McLennan and replacing him as chair with an understated former Wallaby, Daniel Herbert.
It was the last act in a remarkably turbulent year that saw two Wallabies coaches, a chief executive and a chair lose their jobs, and Herbert will be desperate to quietly move on from the chaos.
However, some within New Zealand Rugby actually look quite enviously at Rugby Australia’s governance model, believing it to be more streamlined than the New Zealand system. The Australians, therefore, have the capacity to turn things around if they get their act together, and the five Super Rugby teams have already expressed a willingness to work together for the ultimate benefit of the Wallabies.
Herbert and chief executive Phil Waugh will also have to make the big decision on whether they can afford to have five teams in Super Rugby, and whether that model is helping or hindering the Wallabies.
The Wallabies
Australia were extremely poor at the Rugby World Cup, with the 40-6 loss to Wales showing that Eddie Jones had broken the team in space of just nine months.
The good news is that the Wallabies aren’t as bad as that result seems, and there is little chance that a Dave Rennie-coached side would have offered up such rudderless rugby.
Undoubtedly, they have a big issue at No.10 after Carter Gordon’s difficult campaign in France, and that position is going to cause some headaches for the next Wallabies coach.
Alternatives include the unconvincing Ben Donaldson, now of the Western Force, the old guard of Quade Cooper and Bernard Foley, or promising Reds No.10 Tom Lynagh – although he is still just 20 years old.
But, they have some size up front in Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou, a decent No.8 in Rob Valetini, and some genuine quality in the back line with Len Ikitau in No.13 and, for one more year, Mark Nawaqanitawase out wide.
The appointment of their next coach will be critical. Former Brumbies coach Dan McKellar seems like the obvious choice, but getting him out of his Leicester contract won’t be easy: he is just seven games into a long-term deal.
The Wallabies are set to host Wales in July, so Rugby Australia has a bit of time to get the appointment right.
And, despite the hammering by Wales at the Rugby World Cup, those tests will provide a real opportunity to put some pride back into the jersey.
The Welsh will be a tough nut to crack, but they aren’t unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination.
Super Rugby
The big question of player depth persists in Australia. Queensland and New South Wales produce the majority of players in Australia, but it’s a big ask to fill five Super Rugby franchises with close to 200 positions available.
And, every time a player like Gordon shifts from his ‘home’ state – the Rebels No.10 is actually a Queenslander – it becomes harder for the Reds or Waratahs to be as consistently competitive as they should be.
A woeful five wins by Australian teams against Kiwi opposition during the 2023 regular season emphasises how far they’ve fallen behind.
That said, Australia hasn’t lost a lot of players in the traditional post-Rugby World Cup exodus, with the majority sticking around to be part of the 2025 British and Irish Lions tour and the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
In theory, all the five Australian sides should at least improve in 2024.
However, the Brumbies still look the only side capable of mounting a genuine bid for the Super Rugby title.
They are strong at home, and their focus on set-piece, breakdown and defence suits how the modern game is played.
The outlook
There aren’t any quick fixes on the horizon. The Super Rugby sides are coming off such a low base that some improvement should be expected in the form of more victories against New Zealand sides, but the problems facing the Australian game run deep.
Rennie’s win rate with the Wallabies was less than 40 per cent, so the problems pre-dated Jones and McLennan.
Waugh and Herbert have an enormous job in front of them to navigate the choppy political waters of Australian rugby, and even if they do manage to make some hard and unpopular decisions and survive to tell the tale, the benefits might not be visible for a few years.
Still, the appointment of the well-respected McKellar to the Wallabies job would immediately produce a more organised, structured side that would be at least much harder to break down.
Considering where the Wallabies stand, at No.9 in the world rankings, that in itself would represent a step forward.
