Super Rugby 2011 - Wk 5 - Head to Head

[travelling_gerry]

The bookies are crazy....

[GIGS20]

Stuff it, time to dangle my balls in the shark tank!

[James]

If its dangling time then put it on margin bets (1-12, 13+ etc) 2.3 odds pay off isn't worth it unless you know the result is guaranteed.

[GIGS20]

If it pays off it'll be $2.30 better than anything else I've bet on this year.

[travelling_gerry]

March 16, 2011 No Comments

Chiefs V Sharks
Incredibly tough game to pick. The Chief’s were pretty good last week when robbed by the ref. The Shark’s fought on strongly to escape the Rebels, and perhaps did not go full steam ahead mentally in their preparation.


The Chiefs will be at home and that may help. They also have abundant pace that will test any defence..except perhaps the Stormers!

The Shark’s will try and bust them up and around the ruck. Their forward pack is definitely tougher and better drilled than the Chief’s.

So in some ways it becomes who uses their strengths better. The Chiefs in the backs, and or the Sharks in the forwards. But the Shark backs are not so bad as to being way behind the Chief’s backs as to how far the Chief’s forwards are behind the Shark’s forwards!

Then you throw in the home town refereeing that is almost a given. Especially after the Chief’s were lynched last week, and the Sharks have not lost a game…

So on that logic instead of going for the Sharks, whom I am sure is a better team, I am tipping The Chiefs in a close upset.

Reds V Rebels “All I Can See Is Red” ( Homage to Raymond Chandler)
The spy and rebel filled Rebels are so far proving their form to be that of a YO YO…. They are due for a loss this week on that scenario, as they travel up North to take on the Reds.

The Red’s badly needed the week off and will bounce back well after displacing the Brumbies…though beating them is turning into mandatory.

Danny Cipriani V Quade Cooper is a huge highlight. Cipriani will make this personal and promises to be a key match up as to turns out victorious.

No Mark Gerrard is a big loss for the Rebels, and with Julian Huxley having an error filled game last week, I doubt very sincerely if he will muck up as badly twice in a row.

The Rebels are filled with former internationals who may in fact be gelling. This match will be a really good gauge of where they are actually at. I still doubt their fitness as the season endures. If a team doesn’t go into the season in pristine condition they always fall away mid season on. This may already explain their Yo Yo type synergy. They need “two” weeks to get over the last game, and are found out in between times.

I may be proven wrong, but I am tipping The Reds. I seldom have gotten them right in the last 9 years… So if your keen on the Rebels, you may be a certainty.

Highlanders V Crusaders – Back to Shaky Reality
The Highlander’s ran into a wall of defiance last week that had them wailing in pain by games end. This week they venture home and travel on across the road to play the Crusaders who are currently inspired and deserving early favouritism for the title.

Father Joseph should put in a weak team this week and place in a bigger effort next week. There is just no way the improving Highlander’s can cope with the Crusader back line who are befalling all before them. Robbie Fruean is looking All Black material, Israel Dagg takes on his old mob, so he will be setting himself…. Did I mention Carter and his goal kicking? Big advantage there over Robbie Robinson…Ok Huge.

Yes its easy to pick the Crusaders. In their defence the Highlander’s have been quite outstanding. But after travelling back from South Africa I would want 20-1 about the Crusaders not scoring a try…. and 500-1 about them not kicking at least 3 goals.

Crusaders will definitely win, by how much I am not so sure…. 14?..But if Father Joseph puts in a team of reserves, closer to 33.

Blues V Hurricanes An ill Blue Wind That Blows No Good ?
The Canes have a poor record going to Aukland. One wonders whether the Blues were holding some thing back when they started playing the Force. The Blues generally always look they are cantering around in 3rd gear, looking to go into 2nd gear. They are such a scary team to follow, and I only recommend people with memory disorders to give it a go.

The Hurricanes are fresh after having played only 2 games in 4 weeks. They do have an advantage on that level with the Blues travel arrangements being what they were. I am still labelling MaCalister a world class goal kicker, and he will kick well this week. Can Ranger be stopped twice in row? The Canes are fresh for this. As much as I hate the Hurricanes,and I do despise them, the Blues have a tough job coming home and winning after last weeks fright. And I do wonder how much of this game was in the back of their mind while cruising around in Perth.

I just don’t know. A draw is not silly to my confused thinking..or who ever gets a head start. Or as we say on election night when we are talking about the Greens: “Too insane to call.”

Waratahs V Cheetahs
The Waratah’s are a certainty to win. They now travel well to Africa, and they play the Wooden spoon favourites. They desperately needed a rest after losing more than their composure in their thrashing of the Reds. They will be way too tight in the forwards, and they will make good ground in and around the ruck area. Kurtley Beale should get plenty of room to explode out wide combining with Drew Mitchell for at least 3 tries between them, or each! They really do look, and will be the best of good things. Goal kicking has been a major problem for them for years, and who ever kicks will be praying they get their shots nice and close to the posts.

Lions V Force
Really fascinating match up where the John Mitchell drilled team plays the newly drilled John Mitchell drilled team. I favour the former drilled team because they will be better at playing the Mitchell styled game. Make no mistake Richard Graham has not tampered with things too much when it comes to playing style. The Force only know one way. And the Lions are learning that way right now… and have improved quickly from who they used to be.

James O’Connor comes across another young star in Elton Jantles, and it will be a test for Jantles! Whilst he is promising, O’Connor is already world class.

The Lions will try and run it from most places, and keep moving the point of attack, trying to tire the travellers out a bit. Mitchell will know the Force have been over trained in the sun. The Force will be a touch more strategic, and punch it up a few times before going wide to where Cameron Shepherd looks close to scoring some tries.

Really interesting game where I favour The Force to prevail by under 12.

Bulls V Storm
The Storm back from their incredible defensive effort where they will need more of the same to prevail here. Whilst its incredibly hard to do week in week out they do have a record of being able to do it. Their main problem here is that the Bulls lost their home ground record V Highlanders, and will be inspired to show some thing here. They also have the best goal kicker in the world to go over the wall in Mornay Steyn.

There is a definite chance this will be a war of attrition, but I do think the Bulls will want to make a statement. Frustration will be the best weapon the Stormers can use, and that means tackling themselves silly again this week. But because of goal kicking, I have to favour the Bulls in a tight game where the referee will be decisive, even though that probably means in error. The Refs are in shocking form, and frustrating those fans left is what they are doing best.

Author: Blazing Ben
Filed Under Category: Rugby Union Betting
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Lions Finally EatMarch 14, 2011 No Comments


John Mitchell for all his obsession with this game is far from conservative in his approach. He likes to use every bit of ground on the ground. He loves his players to run back and forth, here and there, throwing passes, and backing up from where ever they can. The Lion players are responding very well to this freedom, and playing well.

The Cheetah’s are back into favourites to take the spoon.

Author: Blazing Ben
Filed Under Category: Rugby Union Betting
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Ref “Cheats” Chiefs No Comments

This was a good see – sawing match with plays continually going back and forth. The result was ruined by referee Jonker, wonker klunker, or who ever. With about 13 to go the Chief’s player did a great strip of the ball 25 meters out from their own line and this ref for reasons known only to him blew it up and gave the Hurricane’s the feed. It was gobsmacking! The Cane’s scored in the corner and then it was tough work. They lost by 3 points, which was just fine for the points spread, but the distaste for us purists who love justice, ( But run for the hills at the mention of social justice) it was another refereeing disgrace. Referee’s are crueling too many matches for my liking already. The only highlight is that Stu “Nuclear whistle” Dickinson did not make his whistling way to the middle to destroy another spectacle. But I seriously do think its a real threat to the integrity of the game… Always have thought that. I am way toooo forgiving.

In Short, Home town Canes very lucky to win.

Author: Blazing Ben
Filed Under Category: Rugby Union Betting
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Blues Climb Force Wall But Don’t Jump To Freedom… No Comments

The Blues some how managed to get away with a draw here. I am still not sure how?

Nathan Sharpe and James O’Connor led their team extremely well. In the future when Pocock returns, its really going to be like Canterbury with McCaw and Carter, especially if they buy a Brad Thorne type. O’Connor is easily the most important player in Australian rugby now. His young heart and talent filled body is the future that Australian rugby will live off for the next 7 or 8 years. I would definitely play him at ten for the Wallabies. His reliability in contradistinction to Quade Cooper is like comparing a brand new top of the range tractor tyre, to a second hand steel belt radial made in Gympie, and sold by Gypsies. O ‘Connor has all the abilities. If he was 6 inches taller and weighed 110 kilos I am suggesting we could be looking at the man Tony Mundine would call “The Real MAN!” Can you get higher praise than that? ( I had a late night,sleep deprivation is twisting my mind in some weird unreal world within a world that I must escape from immediately)… I am so sorry.

Luke MaCalister missed his first 2 shots for reasons that only a golf putter with the wobbles may understand.. as he pleads to his companions ; “What, I thought I hit that putt well!” He came good from then on, but with a team made up of mental whirring fragments looking for validation and positive impetus like the Blues seem always to be needing, missing bought their fragility’s no glue, let alone super glue..

But it was all about the great defence displayed by the Force, for the Force. I respect their integrity as a club, on the field anyway. Closing down Rene Ranger is not easy to do, but they “done did it”.

Then for Stephen Brett of the Blues to come on and kick two goals in a row just added to the complexities of the theatre.

The Force did very well, and would feel a bit rotten, and in the cool light of day feel only partially rewarded. The Blues would feel like they dodged a bullet to the stomach, and only copped it in the side of the arm.

The referee was his influential self, especially at the end when the breakdown according to him broke down…Penalty Blues, shot at goal, successful.Score 22-22. Full time.

http://blog.sportsbetting.com.au/

[GIGS20]

Interesting comparison between Marius Jonker and Nathan Pearce, Jonker was the author of the greatest injustice in history, by giving a scrum feed the wrong way in the middle of the match. Nathan Pearce awarded a dodgy penalty on the death!

Read again, the author clearly suggests that the penalty was .......... Generous

[theforceguy]

The Tahs just cost me a V$million

[James]

At least you made most of it back on the Blues game.

Most bookies were offering ~30 to 1 for the Cheetahs by 12.5+.

[beige]

Bulls to beat Storm via wrong rugby code.

[Burgs]

The Tahs just cost me a V$million

Shame you didn't back your own team with same vpassion

[travelling_gerry]

Paid!

[GIGS20]

Thanks gerry