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With this year's HSBC Asian Five Nations tournament starting next Friday, any discussion of the eventual winner is a moot point. Japan will win the title at a canter, and they themselves have much bigger fish to fry. As if finally aware that its results have been embarrassing for the world's fourth largest rugby playing nation (127 000 registered players as of last year) and a highly cashed up but dysfunctional Top League, Japan is desperate for strong results when it hosts the Rugby World Cup in 2019. Everything that it does until then will have that single purpose in mind. An example of this was the JRFU last year instituting a program that will see the nation's top 1000 13-15 year olds identified and placed on an 8 year national training program under the supervision of the national coaches – the plan being that the few finally selected for Japan in 2019 will be a genuinely elite and prepared squad. In the here-and-now, Japan has set itself the more immediate goal of beating Canada and Tonga at this year's RWC in New Zealand. While this is clearly achievable, the A5N tournament will not provide anywhere near the required preparation for this purpose. As such, John Kirwan will use the A5N as an extended trial with a view to whittling the 41 man squad down to 30 in preparation for the real hit out of the Pacific Nations Cup against Fiji, Samoa and Tonga that it hosts in July.
Allowing for the fact that Japan will likely rack up massive scores against each of its opponents, there is still interest in the performance of the other four teams in this year's tournament. Perhaps most exciting is Sri Lanka's debut at the top level of Asian competition. With 122 000 registered players as of last year, Sri Lanka is Asia's second largest rugby playing nation and its appearance at the A5N should be a great boost for the sport in the country. Unfortunately the team may well struggle to avoid the drop due to its inexperience at this level and the fact that its size generally puts it at a disadvantage, even in Asian competition. Also debuting this year is the United Arab Emirates, taking the place of the Arabian Gulf, which was disbanded after Qatar withdrew to form its own national team. Judging by last year's results, expect competitive games between the UAE, Hong Kong and Kazakhstan in this year's tournament.
In Division I, Korea will be looking for a quick jump back up to the A5N after last year's disastrous showing and subsequent relegation. For years the number 2 power in Asian rugby, Korea will be hoping to make short work of the Philippines and the winner of Singapore vs Malaysia, especially since it is hosting the tournament (the lower divisions are single-venue, 4 team knockout tournaments as opposed to the home-and-away format of the A5N itself).
Division II consists of Chinese Taipei, India, Iran and Thailand. Division III consists of China, Guam, Indonesia and Pakistan. Division IV consists of Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and Uzbekistan. Division V consists of Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Mongolia.
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