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Healthy Waratahs set to bloom this season
February 3, 2008
Former Wallabies coach John Connolly sees mixed fortunes ahead for Australian teams in the Super 14, which kicks off in 12 days.
NSW WARATAHS
NSW will be the big improvers in the Super 14. Whether we like to admit it or not, luck plays a big part in the game and the Waratahs lost four or five tight games which could have gone the other way last year.
They have two great players back on deck in Dan Vickerman and Phil Waugh and they'll have a huge influence on the team. They have an international forward pack led by Matt Dunning and Al Baxter, two international hookers in Tatafu Polota-Nau and Adam Freier, plus Vickerman. There's a world-class back row in Rocky Elsom, David Lyons, Wycliff Palu and Waugh.
They have depth in the halves in Josh Valentine, Luke Burgess and Brett Sheehan and I believe Kurtley Beale will be the next big thing in Australian rugby if he can temper when to play and when not to. Timana Tahu and Lote Tuqiri will lead a young back line that includes Lachlan Turner.
Depth goes a long way, and NSW have it in bucketloads. The big minus for them will be in the goalkicking department, and that could be their Achilles heel. There is also pressure on Ewen McKenzie - another off year may end his coaching career. He is not the flavour of the month with some of rugby's powerbrokers.
I believe they will make the semis.
QUEENSLAND REDS
The Reds are coming off their worst season in 120 years. One of their stalwarts said to me before Christmas that if things had stayed the same, he would have retired from the game.
I don't think that will be the case, as Phil Mooney and his coaching staff will do a good job. They have enough young talent which, handled properly, will push Queensland up the table and they will finish closer to first than last.
The rabble of last year has gone and the memory of the 92-3 defeat by the Bulls will be long gone. The Reds have a good draw, seven games at home and six away. But more importantly, they have the big three - Auckland, Canterbury and NSW - all at Suncorp. They could easily get away with a couple of these games and be semi-final surprise packets. The forward pack is led by an up-and-coming front row of Rodney Blake, Greg Holmes and Stephen Moore, with James Horwill in the second row. Throw in the exuberance of Leroy Houston and Hugh McMeniman and the experience of John Roe and David Croft will make their forward pack a competitive match for anyone.
Sam Cordingley and Chris Latham will lead a young back line and I'm tipping Chris Siale, an acquisition from NSW, to be one of the stars for the Reds in 2008.
ACT BRUMBIES
Welcome to life without George Gregan and Stephen Larkham. It will be a great challenge to fill those roles and, while there's no doubt former Waratah Josh Holmes will slot in for Gregan, whoever replaces Larkham will face a big task.
How the new combination goes could determine whether they improve on last year's fifth place.
Remember that during last season two of their defeats were after the bell.
Had they won those they would have been certain semi-finalists - and it may have propelled Laurie Fisher into the Australian coaching position.
Injury will play a part in their progress, as they don't have the depth of other states.
So much will depend on the fitness of Stirling Mortlock, because he's the impact player they depend on.
They have an experienced back line with Gene Fairbanks, Mark Gerrard, Clyde Rathbone and Julian Huxley. The forwards, led by George Smith, also have a lot of experience, with Nic Henderson, Guy Shepherdson, former Red Mitchell Chapman and Stephen Hoiles.
They'll be a handful for anyone in Canberra and have an impressive record. I predict a mid-table finish, just outside the semis.
WESTERN FORCE
MAYBE the bubble has burst. The loss of CEO Peter O'Meara, the driving force behind the club, will hit the team hard.
Still, they've got Australia's best back line, headed by the nation's best player, Matt Giteau. He'll be supported by Ryan Cross, Drew Mitchell, Cameron Shepherd and Matt Henjak.
There's little depth below these players, but it's the forward pack that most concerns me.
The retirement of Brendan Cannon is a big loss and so much depends on Nathan Sharpe. He'll run the lineout and the play, so if he gets injured there will be problems.
They have perhaps Australia's most exciting young back-rower in David Pocock, but he'll need support around him.
They don't have the forwards to match the big teams in the Super 14.
A mid-table finish would be a very acceptable result. Much better would be surprising.
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