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THE chances of the IRB introducing the experimental law variations at the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand appear increasingly unlikely.
To be sure, the IRB has stated the game needs changes to spark attacking rugby after the defence-orientated 2007 World Cup in France, which was won by South Africa.
The so-called Stellenbosch laws, or at least most of them, are currently being trialled in the Super 14 series.
The laws are also expected to be trialled in the Tri Nations series in August-September before the IRB council votes in November on whether to trial the laws on a worldwide basis for a year.
The main obstacle to the introduction of the new laws is the perception in the northern hemisphere that the rules are part of a southern hemisphere conspiracy to change the game to suit the running rugby of Australia and New Zealand.
The IRB council has already delayed making a decision on a global trial of the laws with the vote originaly scheduled to take place this May.
Of course, at that stage the laws would not have been trialled in professional rugby in Europe.
The IRB has convened a special meeting of the Six Nations in March with an aim of introducing the rules to European rugby later this year.
But with the European season starting in September, the laws will have only been on trial for two months in Europe before the IRB votes on the global trial in November.
The recommendation to the IRB from the laws committee will be written in June or July before the new rules are even played in professional European competitions.
The Europeans will take a lot of convincing to change the game because for the most part they are happy with the way it is now.
While southern hemisphere observers may find aspects of European rugby dull and boring, the game is going gangbusters in the north with record crowds, sponsorship and television audiences. Why change?
It does not take a great deal of imagination to think that the IRB council will delay the vote again.
And this is where it gets tricky. A new law has to be in play for two years before it can be used in a World Cup.
If the IRB council delays the vote again, it will be cutting it fine to include the new laws in the 2011 tournament.
Even if the timeline is favourable, there will be a great debate about which, if any, of the new laws are approved.
The power-brokers in the northern hemisphere will surely have noticed that the news laws have advantaged teams such as the Crusaders and the Blues which want to play attacking rugby rather than a negative, defence-orientated game.
The northern unions may also find an unlikely ally in South Africa, who did very well under the old laws, winning the World Cup and the Super 14 series last year.
It was worth noting that Frans Ludeke, coach of the defending Super 14 champion Bulls, blamed the new laws for his team's seven tries to one thrashing at the hands of the Crusaders in Pretoria last Saturday.
If South Africa adopts this attitude, there is no guarantee the Tri Nations will be played under the new laws.
Perhaps, even more damning was Bulls and Springboks winger Bryan Habana's claim that the new rules were turning rugby into rugby league.
It was the IRB's determination that rugby remain distinct from rugby league which led to key changes in the interpretation of the laws after the 1999 World Cup, which was won by Rod Macqueen's Wallabies.
To prevent the Wallabies' multi-phase game resembling unlimited tackle rugby league, the IRB instructed referees to strongly police the tackle contest, which swung the advantage in favour of the defensive team.
Attacking teams such as the Crusaders and All Blacks have overcome this negativity with the concept of offensive-defence, but the 2003 (England) and 2007 (South Africa) World Cups were won by teams playing conservative, percentage rugby.
The new laws have swung the advantage back in favour of the attacking team, but that may not necessarily be to everyone's liking, particularly in the northern hemisphere.
And that is why we are unlikely to see the new laws in play in New Zealand in 2011.
The Australian
February 28, 2008