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There is an old saying in politics that you never have a royal commission unless you already know the result.
I was reminded of this adage while thinking about the review the ARU plans to conduct into the Wallabies' disappointing season, which hit a low point with their 9-8 loss to Scotland at Murrayfield on Sunday.
It was suggested the review would lead to changes in coaching staff, management and even playing personnel.
ARU chief executive John O'Neill pre-empted the result of the review by saying that national head coach Robbie Deans' job was safe.
Deans has not lived up to high expectations, producing a 51.9 per cent winning record over the past two years.
But O'Neill broke with tradition to appoint the Wallabies' first foreign coach and as a result he is strongly tied to Deans, who is still regarded by most critics as the best man for the job.
In fact, Deans will be part of the panel conducting the review along with O'Neill, high performance manager David Nucifora and other ARU board members.
But someone will pay dearly for the Wallabies' inconsistent performance over the past two years.
There are four coaches on the Wallabies' coaching staff - Deans, forwards coach Jim Williams, skills coach Richard Graham and scrum coach Patricio Noriega.
If Deans is safe, one of his assistants will almost certainly become the sacrificial lamb.
Nucifora, the former Brumbies Super rugby title-winning coach, is highly regarded by O'Neill and he would have been appointed Wallabies coach if Deans had secured the All Blacks job.
The ARU may well reconsider Nucifora, who could assume a forward coach's role or a coaching co-ordinator's position.
If Nucifora was to be a forwards coach, it would be a direct threat to Williams' place on the coaching staff. The scrum is progressing well under Noriega, while Graham is well regarded in high places.
A former Test hooker, Nucifora would be qualified to take over Williams' main responsibility, the lineout. A coaching co-ordinator's role would elevate Nucifora from the status of a mere assistant.
Would Deans want a former rival for the coaching job to become part of the coaching staff? That might be too close for comfort.
By conducting a review O'Neill has signalled there will be changes. How great the change will be will depend largely on the result of the final Test of the year against Wales in Cardiff on Sunday.
Wales is looming as a watershed for the Wallabies - coaches, players and administrators alike.
But my guess is that the ARU already has a fair idea of what it intends to do.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,...016959,00.html