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Form in 2011
Last season was a bad year for the Brumbies. Pretty much everything that possibly could have gone wrong did go wrong. The head coach was sacked after 2 games. The stand in assistant coach failed to gain control of the situation. Injuries stuck pretty badly. In the end the Brumbies finished with four wins and a draw from 16 games: 13th place on the ladder. And this was flattered by late season wins over the Reds and the Rebels. Of the seven Wallaby representatives from the Brumbies squad in 2011, only three have stayed on for the 2012 season. A pretty unfortunate season for the Brumbies.
Another year of this?
Comings and Goings
After a World Cup year and a tumultuous season full of coach dramas, there has been a pretty big exodus from Canberra. Half a dozen current or former Wallabies have fled the capital along with a few good honest toilers. In the forwards there is the loss of Huia Edmonds, Mitchell Chapman, Mark Chisholm, Salesi Ma’afu, Julian Salvi, Rocky Elsom and Stephen Hoiles. That is a shed load of experience, talent and depth. Three of these guys started in the Brumbies season opener in 2011 while three were on the bench. Rocky Elsom, the only player not in the match day 22, would have started if he was fit. That is a big hit for any team to take. From the backs it is bye-bye to Matt Giteau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Franky Fainifo, Tyrone Smith, Ed Stubbs, Josh Valentine and Pat Phibbs. This is four starters in the season opener in 2011 and one bench warmer. That’s half of last year’s team! Now sure some of those guys are effectively deadwood like Hoiles or Josh Valentine, and some were probably more harm than good like Giteau or Rocky Elsom, but half a team leaves a massive vacuum in the Brumbies set up. Probably close to a 1000 Super Rugby caps worth of experience. The Brumby newbies will have a lot to learn.
Worth it?
After the season the Brumbies had, recruiting was always going to be an uphill battle- especially with all the leaving players. That suits the Brumbies, however, because rebuilding will be the only thing on their minds. They’ve done some interesting recruiting. Jono Owen has been promoted from the academy. He will be joined in the front row by Ruaidhri Murphy, Siliva Siliva and Scott Sio, who are U20 age grade reps from Ireland (Murphy- who’d have thought?) and Australia. Sam Carter has also been promoted from the Brumbies academy for 2012. Also in the Brumbies second row are former Bay of Plenty lock Leon Power. Towering former Waratah Ben Mowen joins the Brumbies backrow and is probably the prize acquisition for the Brumbies. Mowen is a solid ball runner and excellent line-out operator and will be of great help to an unimpressive Brumby line-out. Alongside Mowen will be the enigmatic Fotu Auelua. Auelua has a reputation as a destructive ball runner in France and Japan, however his success in Super rugby will depend on how well he adapts to the pace of the Southern Hemisphere game. The Brumbies have made an exciting duel for the scrumhalf jersey by adding Ian Prior to their roster from the Queensland Reds. With 6 Super caps, Prior is more experienced than the Brumbies’ other scrumhalf, but it will nevertheless be intriguing to see whether Prior and Nic White bring out the best in each other. The Brumbies have also signed a handful of young backs with no Super experience. You probably haven’t heard of most of them yet, and to be honest neither have I, but I’m sure we will be singing the praises of one or two of them by the end of the year.
But by far the most significant new member of the Brumbies team is coach Jake White. A lot has been made of White's appointment in Canberra. There are those who believe he add a South African take no prisoners approach to a side that already boasts some great player culture. Then there are those who see common sense. Even a great coach can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. And that would be assuming that Jake White is a great coach. White has never been head coach of a Super Rugby side. And what has he achieved outside of Super Rugby? He won an U21 World Championship. Good, but not great when you consider the quality of South African juniors. He won a Tri-Nations. Better, but limited by the fact that noone won any away games in that series and South Africa won on bonus points. His crowning achievement, however, is his RWC victory in 2007. But was this such a great victory? It was quite wittily described as the Stephen Bradbury of RWC wins. A victory gained with wins over a dismal England, a plucky Argentina and a fleet-footed Fiji. Certainly not an epic. It will be interesting to see whether White sinks or soars in Super Rugby 2012.
The Strengths
If there is one place on the field where the Brumbies look truly dangerous, it is without doubt their front row. Stephen Moore is an excellent hooker with a great all round game. Although he will perhaps be a bit pissed about being stuck at loosehead, Ben Alexander is a solid scrummager at Super Rugby level and has an impressive work rate and try-scoring nous. Dan Palmer is a rock in the front row. He needs to add a bit more work to his game if he wants to come into Wallabies contention; however he will be a menace at this level. This trio will make one of the best scrums in the competition if they stay fit and firing.
Another big plus for the Brumbies in 2011 is all the young talent they have in their squad. Nic White and Ian Prior could well establish themselves as Will Genia’s backups by the end of the season. Robbie Coleman is also set for a big year. Will this also be the breakout year for Matt Toomua? With so little known about many of the other players, more than one opposition coach will be surprised by the Brumbies next season.
The Weaknesses
This team is the weakest looking team in the franchise’s history. Half of the players are new to the Brumbies. Almost half have not played Super Rugby before. Add in to that a brand new coach with a completely different style (did Andy Friend and Tony Rea even have a style?) and you have the recipe for a tough year. Injuries to a few key players like Stephen Moore and Ben Mowen will put a big spanner in the Brumby works. Without these two it is likely that the Brumbies line-out will be torn to shreds. With all the young faces, they are also some of the team’s key leaders. Put simply, the Brumbies don’t have depth or outstanding talent in a majority of positions. They don’t have the unity proved by playing together for a number of seasons under the same coach. I’d wager a couple of the players might still be feeling a bit disgruntled after last year. Ben Alexander in particular may rue Dan Palmer and Jono Owen in the squad as playing tighthead was a sticking point for him in staying in Canberra in his last contract. It will take a while for the team to bed down and get it all together. It will also take Jake White a little while to sort out the diamonds in the rough from the dead wood.
Another downside for the Brumbies is their draw. A second round bye puts the Canberrans behind the pack a bit. On top of this, both their South African tour matches are at altitude and after 6 straight weeks of competition so fatigue may be a factor. Finally, if they do somehow manage to get it together and challenge for a finals place, their final five games include tough home encounters against the Reds and Blues and tough away games to the Force, Waratahs and Rebels. No easy wins there.
You have to wonder if how well Jake White will fit into the Brumbies set-up. A man renowned for pig headedness coaching a team renowned for player power. A man who preferred bruising forwards and a conservative approach to attack versus a team that has a history of innovative attack and forwards who pride themselves on mobility. It will be tough to get the team to play in a way that doesn't suit them and doesn't interest them. If the dynamics aren't quite right, things could go a bit pear shaped in Canberra.
I also wonder if the dramas surrounding the lack of a major sponsor will impact the side. It will certainly be dwelling on the minds of some of those in the backrooms. Will it boil over and affect the players?
Keep an eye out for...
This is a hard one to choose. There are so many new players with the Brumbies that it is worth keeping an eye out for the whole team. But if I was to pick only one player to keep an eye out for for, it would have to be Zack Holmes. The as a team not produced a lot of local players of Super Rugby quality. Being a Sandgroper, it is great to see Zack playing at this level. It would be a sad indictment of the as an organisation if he thrives at this level and was not signed in his home state. So good luck Zack but so help me if you score against us. Hahahaha.
Did we miss out on someone great?
The Prediction
I’m not going to lie. I think the Brumbies in 2012 will be dire at the start of the season. I’m predicting a short mid-season form streak but then a second slump as injuries/lack of depth and some tough final games take their toll. The Brumbies just don’t have the talent, depth of experience to make a decent show of themselves this season. I can’t see them getting past the wooden spoon. 15th.