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Argentina could go a very long way
Greg Growden in Bordeaux | September 29, 2007
The Tri Nations combatants - Australia, New Zealand and South Africa - have their feet up and are resting before the tournament gets serious next week. The southern hemisphere powers have assured themselves of top spots in their respective groups, with their final matches over the next two days little more than glorified training runs.
Cricket scores are anticipated in the New Zealand-Romania match in Toulouse and the Australian jaunt against Canada in Bordeaux, while South Africa should get their combinations purring again against the USA in Montpellier to finish off the group stage.
But elsewhere, the stakes are high. Five matches will be crucial in determining who makes the cut for next week's quarter-finals. England's destiny will be known this morning, after their do-or-die clash with Tonga in Paris, and, while many have been forecasting the early demise of the World Cup holders, a Six Nations power under even greater threat is Ireland.
As expected, group D has turned into a hornet's nest, with Argentina, France and Ireland desperately fighting for two finals spots. The finishing order of the three teams revolves around the Ireland-Argentina match in Paris on Sunday.
Ireland have been the most unsettled team in the tournament. After France found their way following the embarrassment of losing to Argentina on the opening night, the juicier World Cup stories have centred on the Irish.
The French media delighted in targeting Ronan O'Gara before their encounter in Paris, with claims that the Irish five-eighth's marriage was on the rocks and that he was struggling financially under the weight of enormous gambling debts. O'Gara was aghast and denied it all, as did the Irish team management, who castigated the French media for deliberately prying into the player's private life.
Nonetheless, the smear campaign clearly worked. O'Gara disappeared during that critical game, which saw France cruise to a 25-3 victory.
There have also been reports of Irish players wanting to go home because they were unhappy with the direction taken by their coach, Eddie O'Sullivan, as well as grumbles at being stuck out in the middle of nowhere in Bordeaux for long stretches of the tournament. Unlike the Irish, the All Blacks and Wallabies have relished being hidden away from the masses in the south of France.
While Ireland are terrific at home, relying on a bombardment of high kicks in the howling wind and rain of Dublin to unsettle opponents, their limitations are exposed when they travel. They must overcome their lack of depth and inability to turn to a Plan B if they are to progress.
France should sneak into the quarters, as the host nation's final group match against Georgia looks a simple assignment.
Whoever wins this group will have the easy task of of meeting Scotland in the quarter-finals, providing the Scots beat Italy in St Etienne on Saturday night.
Scotland are a second-class unit, and have been unimpressive in each of their group encounters. They deserve to be punished for fielding their B team against the All Blacks, robbing home supporters at Murrayfield of a proper spectacle.
Scotland's decision to save themselves for the Italy clash was a blight on the tournament.
Upsets are inevitable, but at this stage the most likely scenario is that the four quarter-finals will be: Australia-England, New Zealand-France, South Africa-Wales and Argentina-Scotland.
Suddenly the Pumas look a very serious finals threat.