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Teething problems over, time for Super teams to step up to mark
Wayne Smith | January 29, 2008
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...012430,00.html
AFTER going into freefall following the admission of a fourth team, will this be the season that Australian rugby finally comes to terms with the demands of the Super 14?
It was not entirely unexpected that the overall winning ratio of Australian teams, which had dropped below 50 per cent only twice in a decade of Super 12, should plummet to 41.5 per cent in 2006, the first year resources had to be spread four ways following the admission of Western Force.
But no-one foresaw the calamity of 2007, when Queensland and NSW slumped to the bottom of the Super 14 table as Australian teams cobbled together only 20 wins from 52 matches.
For the first time in Super rugby, Australia brought up the rear while South Africa was telegraphing its rise to world champion by narrowly eclipsing New Zealand on winning percentages, its five teams finishing on 53.62 to the Kiwis' 52.23.
Waratahs coach Ewen McKenzie has no doubt Australia's statistical decline can be attributed to the four-way division of available talent where previously it had been shared just by NSW, Queensland and the ACT.
"People tend to wipe that off, but there's no disputing that, if you're dividing by four rather than three, you're going to be diluting the strength of your teams," McKenzie said. "You can't argue it any other way."
On the verge this year of equalling the legendary Dave Brockhoff as the longest-serving NSW coach, although Brockhoff brought up his five seasons in three stints, McKenzie is heartened by statistics that prove a direct correlation between the ages and experience of the 14 squads and their finishing order on the table.
"The Bulls might have overachieved in this regard but, generally, they were the factors that determined where you finished on the table," he said.
"We were the second bottom team in terms of age and experience last season and the Reds were bottom - and that's where we finished.
"There might not seem to be a lot of difference between an average squad member age of 26 years and 23, but you can pack a lot of work into three years of professional rugby. Last year we had 12 debutants, this year we've got a possible three.
"When you take Anton Oliver and Carl Hayman out of the Highlanders' front row, or Chris Jack out of the Crusaders' second row, you'll find the relative experience of those teams drops pretty quickly."
That's not an argument that Brumbies supporters would want to hear, not after losing 364 caps worth of Super rugby experience when George Gregan, Steve Larkham and Jeremy Paul all left at the end of last season.
And with Stirling Mortlock not expected to return until April as he recovers from an off-season shoulder reconstruction, that's an additional 99 caps of experience that will be missing for at least the first half of this season.
Still, there is at least one other statistic the Brumbies can take comfort in. Their coach, Laurie Fisher, is the most successful of the Australian-based Super rugby coaches, with a 59 per cent winning record. This compares with McKenzie's 53 and the Force's John Mitchell's 27 (35 per cent if his 10 wins with the Chiefs in 2001-2002 are considered).
Queensland's Phil Mooney will make his Super coaching debut against the Highlanders on February 15 at Suncorp Stadium, having inherited the underperforming Reds from Eddie Jones (two wins from 13 matches) and Jeff Miller (12 from 35).
All four clubs also should benefit from the fact that for the first and possibly last time, Australia last year staged a post-Super domestic competition that should have helped to negate the advantages provided to South Africa by the Currie Cup and to New Zealand by the National Provincial Championship.
McKenzie is convinced young playmaker Kurtley Beale, who will direct operations for the Waratahs against the Brumbies in the pre-season trial at Gosford on Friday night, grew in stature and confidence as a result of playing in the now defunct Australian Rugby Championship.
There are similar stories across the other three clubs.
Meanwhile, in the absence of regular skipper John Roe, Mooney has entrusted the captaincy of a near-full strength Reds side to play an All Blacks-laden Blues at Ballymore on Thursday night to Sam Cordingley.