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Except that they never will if no-one knows that it is on. Rugby doesn't get televised free-to-air, so there is no opportunity for new supporters to get the bug other than to wander down to see what the fuss is about. If they can't, they'll shrug their shoulders and move on.
Yep, on the money Andy, you have to have room for walk up spur of the moment punters.
I have run the figures in another thread but here are the Force Home crowd figures for the first full round (ie each opposition over two seasons):
Brumbies 37,037
Chiefs 29,239
Waratahs 26,140
Bulls 23,392
Stormers 24,507
Crusaders 30,230
Highlanders 30,704
Lions 25,523
Hurricanes 27,648
Reds 26,032
Sharks 28,400
Cheetahs 24,313
Blues 30,083
Average: 27,942
Against opposition from each Nation:
Aus 29,736
NZ 29,581
SA 25,227
So again, these are the figures being achieved in such a "shocking" stadium as Subiaco and the fans are set to come flooding back in a rectangular venue.
When combined with a thirty odd year stadium life and thirty years of WA population growth I strongly believe that even 35k is selling ourselves and the other rectangular codes short.
Even if a 45k only had punters in the side seats with the ends empty for the first three to five years in the smaller matches, it allows room for growth.
As the walk ups come in you sell out one section on one end before opening up the next etc.
I am all for people power, I was part of the Subi demonstration too (base of the goal post NE Corner...) however I don't want to see ourselves compromise too low.
The EWF originally put in a proposal based on 4k members and attracted 21k in their first year.
Let's not make such a gross underestimation of the public thirst for Union in Perth a second time around!
"Bloody oath we did!"
Nathan Sharpe, Legend.
Hear hear Burgs..I was thinking along the same lines however my thoughts were not as clear..if that makes sense..anyhow, I'm with you on this one.
I think projections should probably be based on what our NSW, QLD and to a lesser extent ACT counter parts achieve. Western Force has had (and is possibly still enjoying) a honey moon period.
I don't think we would really expect much more support than what those over east have enjoyed during their most successful seasons. Based on the figures above, 32K would enough for a dedicated rectangular stadium and would make an MES upgrade a realistic option in addition to the "multi purpose" subi redevelopment. Any larger and we'd be looking at a knock down/rebuild and I just don't see this happening.
Any historical figures on crowd sizes at Brumbies, Tahs and Reds games - esp during successful season campaigns?
I agree to some extent Coach, but at the same time there is no analogue for a population of 2 million and no competition from League. Mostly though, I just think this state always underestimates its infrastructure needs (eg. "the Narrows will be fine 'til 2020"). Whatever gets built - if we somehow managed to get a rectangular ground, that would be it for the next 10 years.
I think projections from 2008 will be crucial, It was notable that whilst 2007 showed a drop in memberships, there wasn't an appreciable drop in attendance, I think 2008 is likely to be similar, My mate has not renewed his membership, in favour of saving a few bucks and walking up. He's still going to go to every game (and will probably buy nickel tickets and wander down to sit with me anyway) If this trend continues, it not only justifies the case for a 30,000 seat oval, but presents a solid business case for not overestimation by too far. At the moment, Subi is so undersubscribed by members, that it's easy to get around the ticket prices and still get a good seat. If we have a 30,000 seat stadium which sells out any time we play an Aussie or Kiwi team, watch the memberships skyrocket.
I think there's a good business case for 30,000 with planned expansion points at 5 years 10 years and 15 years, up to double the size in 15 years time. as you fill one capacity, start saving to build the next!
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The main concern i have is that with the new stadium only due in 2015 (6 full seasons) what is going to be done in the interrim?
Subi wont be around for a couple of years before that as well so that leaves the WACA or ME... maybe Perry lakes if worst come worst.
Will the State government commit to their promise of $25 mill in upgrades?
Actually, we are better off than AFL there...Subi wouldn't be knocked down before building the new stadium as it only overlaps the eastern stand. We can survive without that.
For mine I still think they should consider a two field arrangement, with shared training, entertainment and maintenance facilities.
If we only lose one stand of Subi, can it be reconfigured into a rectangle once the white elephant is up and running?
We could turn the pitch, Build another eastern stand and redevelop the remaining stands so they fit a real pitch. Surely something like that would be good for 30-40,000?
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Well explained AndyS, I think you have explained all the salient points in an unfortunately clear manner (I say unfortunately because I feel much worse having read it)
The redeveloment of Subiaco Oval is only a pipedream from me AFAIK It would be nice, but I'm noted for clutching at straws in hope (reference all my responses to ARC related questions as evidence) If we're to hold out any hope of getting a rectangular stadium at all, we need to find a wealthy private citizen who happens to be a rugby fan, and owns a large parcel of land somewhere in the Metro area.
That's not terribly likely, is it?
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Probably not, but hope springs eternal - they'd need to be wicked generous though, and have something on the Government as they'd try to block any separate development anyway (they need rugby to prop up the economics).
I'm not sure the two stadium thing couldn't be done though...I don't think their plan is to develop Subi for financial return (at least, not according to their artist impressions anyway). They would have already mobilised the construction and fabrication lads, they'd have to be pulling it down and remediating anyway, they'd be able to continue using some of the training facilities that have had a lot of money sunk into them etc etc. They would never get a less expensive opportunity to get a rectangular ground and it would all be under common management. It is perhaps just in the telling and selling of the story.
Keep it up AndyS that has to be one of the best posts I have read...I think I missed it first time round.
Your idea of the combined stadium, i.e. amalgamating the existing Subi structure with the new kitchener structure and converting the Subi portion into the rectangular sports arena, is fantastic. Apart from giving everyone exactly what they want it would be an awesome and unique structure, a real iconic sporting centre demonstrating WA's commitment to all sports.
Smart thinking.
Anybody on here any good at drawing? Would be great to get a sketch of what AndyS has suggested and we can post it.....you never know, Andy may have something here.
Just happy to be here
How's this for a quick and Dirty go at it.
Surely there's an Architect or Draftie on here who can do the job right!
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You ARE the tracing Master!!!
"Bloody oath we did!"
Nathan Sharpe, Legend.