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Robbie Deans has finally shown his true colours and they are as black as the jersey he wore so proudly. Dropping Nathan Sharpe? Preposterous! Having Saia Faingaa on the bench against arguably the best scrum in the world? Outrageous! Persisting with Ben Alexander as a tighthead prop? Abominable! Robbie is evil. The candle of faith has truly burnt down to the nub. What do we have to show for the past 4 years? A 55% win ratio. Can Robbie take his coaching prowess from Super Rugby level to International level or is he the Mark Chisholm of coaching? We can’t keep putting off his lack of results: The future is now. Robbie is going to have to roll out some magic in Auckland over the weekend.
How are they travelling?
Both the Wallabies and the All Blacks have enjoyed comfortable wins over the Boks ‘B’ in the last few weeks. You can’t read a whole lot out of a clash against a substandard opposition, but you would have to be a bit concerned by the way the Wallabies let through two late tries while the All Blacks put on the after burners and scored two of their own. Another point of interest is that, where the Wallabies have named an unchanged starting line-up to take on New Zealand, the Kiwis have made no less than 7 changes to their starting side.
Going back another game, it’s still hard to get over the Wallabies’ monumental loss to the Samoans. You can only hope that this has got rid of our typical complacency and overconfidence. New Zealand, on the other hand, comfortably put the sword to the flying Fijians, although were fairly sloppy in their first test of the season.
The Key Match-Ups
Now the media will go like flies on a big old pile of pooh to the clashes of Dave Pocock vs Richie McCaw and Dan Carter vs Quade Cooper, and who could blame them? Every year we have talked about how we think Pocock has leap-frogged McCaw but it will take a tour defrom Pocock to put that beyond doubt. Meanwhile, Cooper has been the victor in the last three games between himself and Carter. We know he isn’t the all round player that Carter is, but has Ewen McDumbledore taught him enough magic to marshal the Wallabies to victory?
There is a stark contrast between the two back threes with New Zealand opting for power as a foil for the finesse of the Wallaby outside backs, especially when Digby Ioane is defending at 10. Watch out for Gear and Sivivatu testing out the defence of Beale, Cooper and O’Connor. Yet the really interesting selections in the backline are in the centres with the selected four feeling the heat around the corner from all comers. Almost 12 months ago Adam Ashley-Cooper and Conrad Smith were arguably the best two outside centres in world rugby but their positions are now under much greater scrutiny. The rise of a number of young prospects, such as Robbie Fruean, has Smith under pressure while Adam Ashley-Cooper had an indifferent year of Super Rugby. Closer in, there is contention over whether the Wallabies should play a ball player or a ball runner at 12 and then who should fill that role. Robbie seems keen on Pat McCabe and he certainly hasn’t made any blunders thus far. For the ABs, Ma’a Nonu has also had a bad season of Super Rugby and it is a surprise to see him start. His discipline is also an issue. Expect a no-holds-barred slug out between these four as they angle to nail down their spots for the big event in September.
Definitely the most telling match up, as is usually the case with the Wallabies, will be the tussle between the two front rows. Franks and Crockett formed part of the Crusaders front row that minced the championship-winning Reds’ scrum and were never outpointed through the season. Thankfully, the Wallabies won’t be playing with the Reds’ front row. The pressure will be palpable nonetheless. It could even reach mammoth proportions if Squeaky Moore takes a breather for Saia Faingaa. The latter’s lack of scrum prowess could cost the Wallabies the game and it is hard to fathom why a better impact hooker like Nathan Charles or James Hanson wasn’t selected.
Players to Watch out for...
It was about this time last year that Ben McCalman stamped his foot on international rugby with a solid Tri-Nations series. Highlights for McCalman included setting up tries against both the Blacks and the Boks and generally throwing his body around with wanton disregard. McCalman has been fairly quiet since then and risks losing his place to either Wycliff Palu or Radike Samo if he doesn’t return to form. McCalman is a great all rounder, but without Sharpe in the side he will need to knock his ball running up a notch and start punching a little bit above his weight. I’m expecting a big game from McCalman- a return to form with a mighty roar. I’d even bank on him being the game’s first try-scorer.
It seems an odd choice that chubber Weepu is the starting 9 for the ABs this game. Last I saw of him he was out of shape and out of form. While Ellis may not be a lot better, he at least forms an 8-9-10 Crusader axis. Perhaps Henry wants more of a playmaking 9 given the absence of ball players outside of Carter. Who knows? Either way, keep an eye on him; watch as Billy Genia bursts his way past on the way to the try line!
Predicted Result:
A fair number of people on this forum weren’t old enough to remember the last time the Wallabies won against New Zealand at Eden Park; twenty five years is a long time. Fingers crossed this won’t be the only time we play the All Blacks at Eden Park this year either, and that second one would be the one we most definitely would want to win. So if you haven’t won somewhere in donkeys years, what are the chances of breaking that hoodoo twice in one year? I’d fancy they’d be pretty low. We come into this one as major underdogs and it is hard to see us taking down New Zealand in our present somewhat undercooked state. I’d wager on the Kiwis taking this one by 13, but I’ll bet it will be the only victory they have over us in Auckland this year.
The Teams
Wallabies: 15. Kurtley Beale, 14. James O'Connor, 13. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12. Pat McCabe, 11. Digby Ioane, 10. Quade Cooper, 9. Will Genia, 8. Ben McCalman, 7. David Pocock, 6. Rocky Elsom (c), 5. James Horwill, 4. Rob Simmons, 3. Ben Alexander, 2. Stephen Moore, 1. Sekope Kepu. Reserves: 16. Saia Faingaa, 17. Pekahou Cowan, 18. Dan Vickerman, 19. Scott Higginbotham, 20. Luke Burgess, 21. Anthony Faingaa, 22. Lachie Turner
New Zealand: 15. Mils Muliaina, 14. Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13. Conrad Smith, 12. Ma'a Nonu, 11. Hosea Gear, 10. Daniel Carter, 9. Piri Weepu, 8. Kieran Read, 7. Richie McCaw(c), 6. Jerome Kaino , 5. Ali Williams, 4. Brad Thorn, 3. Owen Franks, 2. Keven Mealamu, 1. Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: 16. Andrew Hore, 17. Ben Franks, 18. Samuel Whitelock, 19. Adam Thomson, 20. Andy Ellis, 21. Colin Slade, 22. Sonny Bill Williams.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
I think I am going to go see the game at the Newport Arms with some Kiwis so I'll be happy with anything close to a win.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
It depends on the weather, if it's dry and the Wallabies forwards don't come to the party, then ABS by 20. We've got a world class back-line, but that forward pack is a concern.
I actually think a wetter track would suit us. The kind of long range tries we like to score usually come from errors and a slippery ball will bring more handling errors. Even without Sharpie we should have the edge in the line-out (Williams has been poor this year for the Blues) which would suit a territory game. Especially since Sivivatu and Gear aren't the best kickers.
I'd probably be a bit more worried if it was really windy.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
I enjoy your reports and point of view James .. but Robbie know's more about rugby than you do so I'll wager he know's what his plans are.
Chuck Norris has the greatest Poker-Face of all time. He won the 1983 World Series of Poker, despite holding only a Joker, a Get out of Jail Free Monopoly card, a 2 of clubs, 7 of spades and a green #4 card from the game Uno.
I agree with this, I think the success of the Wallabies in the TN and WC will play a major part in Dean's future as national coach. He's definitely underachieved, but then I don't think he's really had a world class XV. Now he does, so no excuses.A 55% win ratio. Can Robbie take his coaching prowess from Super Rugby level to International level or is he the Mark Chisholm of coaching? We can’t keep putting off his lack of results: The future is now. Robbie is going to have to roll out some magic in Auckland over the weekend.
how is that even a credible statement??? we've been smashed by Samoa, beaten a jarpie b-team and only had moderate success during the spring tour loosing to England and Munster!
We cannot say we have a world class squad until we hold the tri-nations & web ellis in the same cabinet
Last edited by Happy; 05-08-11 at 13:28. Reason: formatting
Chuck Norris has the greatest Poker-Face of all time. He won the 1983 World Series of Poker, despite holding only a Joker, a Get out of Jail Free Monopoly card, a 2 of clubs, 7 of spades and a green #4 card from the game Uno.
Good synopsis, James.
Just to comment on the ball running vs ball distributing no 12 - we also have JOC and Beale, who both often come in to 1st or 2nd receiver - so we really don't need a player like Barnes or Giteau at 12. Better to pick a big, hard tackling centre pairing to bolster the defence, and first phase attack, and let the other backs loose as the play becomes less structured.
Or am I actually Graham Henry in disguise.
Seriously though, that stuff I wrote about Deans was mostly tongue in cheek. I do question not using an impact hooker but I suppose Faingaa could use the game time. I am also willing to keep an open mind on what Deans is up to with Sharpie, however I will be fully pissed if he isn't in the 30 man squad for the World Cup. I just wanted to be a bit controversial to stir up some debate.![]()
Absolutely. I am a big fan of having someone like McCabe at 12 and I think he only stands to get better there. One of the real strengths of the ABs is that all of their players 1-15 tend to be capable counter-ruckers. When we played Cooper, Giteau, O'Connor, Mitchell and Beale in the same side last year I think we lost a bit there and lost a bit in our ability to make dominant tackles in the backs. It is funny to see O'Connor at the breakdown- to his credit, he gets involved but it is like watching a puppy fighting a lion.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
Bring it on - see you all at JBs
coz Stone Cold says so
Bummer that my flight takes off at 3pm. As long as I don't turn my phone on until I get home where the IQ is waiting for me!
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