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The Western Force vs the ACT Brumbies. In recent years this has become the big rivalry for us, and this could just be the most important clash between the two teams since the inaugural game Force game in 2006. At a time when the 5th Melbourne team has put extra strain on player resources, winning = player retention. There could be some lean years ahead for the loser of this clash. What better motivation is there than that?
Head to Head
With exception to the 2007 game, there haven’t been a whole lot of close games between the Force and the Brumbies, and each of the games has come with its fair share of drama. The inaugural game was definitely not short of drama as the Westerners ran out in front of 37,000 fans and almost ran away with the game after leading shortly after halftime; however injuries to both Lachlan McKay and Josh Graham in a short space of time shifted momentum in the Brumbies’ favour. The following fixture in Canberra was dramatic for its two questionable Force yellow cards and last minute match winning penalty for Tai McIsaac’s ‘late’ hit on Stephen Larkham. After 27 minutes, 2008 looked to be a continuation of the Brumbies’ winning streak with the home team scoreless and the Brumbies earning their four try bonus point. However, the Force really turned it on from here and, keeping the Brumbies scoreless for the rest of the game, put 29 points on the visitors to run out with a 29-22 win to close out the season. Probably the biggest drama in Western Force/ACT Brumbies history came on the eve of the 2009 match when Matt Giteau announced that he would be returning to Canberra in 2010. Against all expectation, the Force steamrolled the hapless Brumbies thanks to a powerhouse performance from inside centre Junior Pelesasa. Last year’s game was probably one of the most depressing in Force history, with both Cameron Shepherd and Mark Bartholomeusz ruled out hours before the match, seeing a Force side that was unable to pose any threat beyond that of James O’Connor’s boot. The Brumbies left Perth with a 24 to 15 victory.
Western Force vs Brumbies 2011
Strengths
Motivation will be the biggest card the Force can draw for this clash. After last weekend’s humiliation, you would expect, or at least hope, the Force are highly motivated to silence their critics with a win in Canberra. The home team managed to get the same monkey of their backs with their uninspiring win over the Hurricanes; they might not want it as much as the Force do. As frustrating as it is, the Force do seem to play better in these kinds of matches. The other big strength is that, with Willie Ripia getting a full 80 minutes last weekend, we can hope for a better attack than what we have been seeing recently.
Weaknesses
We were fully reamed at the breakdown against the Waratahs. While this was in part due to the Tah’s ability to constantly get over the gain line, the losses of David Pocock and Matty Hodgson have hurt as much as we expected they would here. While Jono Jenkin’s tackling was solid (word was he made 29 tackles and missed none), I’m yet to be convinced of his ball-scavenging abilities. If Brown, McCalman and Jenkins don’t put in a better performance, we won’t get through three phases without losing the ball through a breakdown turnover or a dropped passes from pressure. Normally you would highlight the scrum as a weakness for the Force in a match like this, however we held up pretty well against the Tahs last weekend and the Brumbies may have to rely on two inexperienced hookers which can’t help them. One further concern is the fitness of Cam Shepherd and James O’Connor. Shepherd took a big knock in the dying minutes of the Tahs clash while O’Connor was struggling with a virus earlier on in the week.
Opportunities
The glaringly obvious opportunity here is the chance to play the field position game against the Brumbies. Admittedly our line-out last week was poor at best, but with Sharpie in command you wouldn’t count on it failing two weeks in a row and with Huia Edmonds likely to be ruled out there will be enormous pressure on Anthony Heagarty. A kicking for territory game would also suit both our fly half, Willie Ripia, and our inability to sustain an attack. Another bonus for the Force is that the Brumbies are carrying niggling injuries across the park. Matt Giteau, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Peter Kimlin are some of the big names who need to pass fitness tests to make the Brumbies’ side. This doesn’t include many who have already been ruled out. I don’t know which team has been raped by injuries more. Either way, Kimlin and AAC are two of the Brumbies most reliable players for ball-running in a slugfest. If either were ruled out, it would be of great benefit to the Force in keeping things fairly tight. It would take away some of the Brumbies’ much needed penetration.
Threats
Both teams have looked pretty poor in the last few weeks. I think few people are convinced of the merits to the Brumbies’ tri-flyhalves strategy. You never know, though. If the game opens up a lot, these three are potentially capable of organizing an attack that far surpasses anything the Force have demonstrated this year. The other possible threat, or more X-factor, will be the appointment of Keith Brown as referee. Steve Walsh, who had ‘issues’ with the Brumbies last year, has pulled out of the match with an ‘injury’. It is hard to say whether the appointment of Brown will hurt or benefit the Force. Lord knows Brown won’t go out of his way to favour the home team, but will his memories of the Force/Sharks game influence him? Does he feel like he was too harsh on the Force? Does he feel like we are thugs who must be punished? Sharpie will have to work hard to win the ‘battle of the referee’.
The Key Match-up
As with most Australian games, this one will almost definitely start and end with the two forward packs. There are opportunities on both sides and it is really hard to pick a clear winner in this one. We have the Nathan Sharpe factor in the line-outs; however there is a big question mark over what will happen with the scrums. If we want to keep the heat on the Brumbies in a tight game, it will start and end with the match-up between Ben Alexander and Tim Fairbrother. Neither player will be happy with their own form, and with the quality of attack we can expect to see, both will have a lot of work to do. The winner of the scrum battle will make big inroads for their team.
The Prediction
Force fans haven’t had a whole lot of joy this year. I don’t know if many of us can take much more heartbreak. Fortunately, I think the rains of happiness will fall in Canberra on Sunday. The Force will finally play a solid 80 minutes of rugby and run out 4 point winners.
Teams:
Western Force
1. Kieran Longbottom
2. Ben Whittaker
3. Tim Fairbrother
4. Sam Wykes
5. Nathan Sharpe (c)
6. Richard Brown
7. Jono Jenkins
8. Ben McCalman
9. Brett Sheehan
10. Willie Ripia
11. David Smith
12. James O'Connor
13. Rory Sidey
14. Nick Cummins
15. Pat Dellit
Reserves
16. Nathan Charles
17. Pek Cowan
18. Tom Hockings
19. Tevita Metuisela
20. James Stannard
21. Gene Fairbanks
22. Alfie Mafi
Brumbies
1. Ben Alexander
2. Anthony Hegarty
3. Dan Palmer
4. Ben Hand
5. Mark Chisholm
6. Peter Kimlin
7. Michael Hooper
8. Ita Vaea
9. Josh Valentine
10. Matt Giteau
11. Francis Fainifo
12. Christian Lealiifano
13. Andrew Smith
14. Pat McCabe
15. Matt Toomua
Reserves
16. Elvis Levi
17. Salesi Ma’afu
18. Colby Faingaa
19. Julian Salvi
20. Patrick Phibbs
21. Tyrone Smith
22. Adam Ashley-Cooper