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There is an old saying in politics that you never have a royal commission unless you already know the result.
I was reminded of this adage while thinking about the review the ARU plans to conduct into the Wallabies' disappointing season, which hit a low point with their 9-8 loss to Scotland at Murrayfield on Sunday.
It was suggested the review would lead to changes in coaching staff, management and even playing personnel.
ARU chief executive John O'Neill pre-empted the result of the review by saying that national head coach Robbie Deans' job was safe.
Deans has not lived up to high expectations, producing a 51.9 per cent winning record over the past two years.
But O'Neill broke with tradition to appoint the Wallabies' first foreign coach and as a result he is strongly tied to Deans, who is still regarded by most critics as the best man for the job.
In fact, Deans will be part of the panel conducting the review along with O'Neill, high performance manager David Nucifora and other ARU board members.
But someone will pay dearly for the Wallabies' inconsistent performance over the past two years.
There are four coaches on the Wallabies' coaching staff - Deans, forwards coach Jim Williams, skills coach Richard Graham and scrum coach Patricio Noriega.
If Deans is safe, one of his assistants will almost certainly become the sacrificial lamb.
Nucifora, the former Brumbies Super rugby title-winning coach, is highly regarded by O'Neill and he would have been appointed Wallabies coach if Deans had secured the All Blacks job.
The ARU may well reconsider Nucifora, who could assume a forward coach's role or a coaching co-ordinator's position.
If Nucifora was to be a forwards coach, it would be a direct threat to Williams' place on the coaching staff. The scrum is progressing well under Noriega, while Graham is well regarded in high places.
A former Test hooker, Nucifora would be qualified to take over Williams' main responsibility, the lineout. A coaching co-ordinator's role would elevate Nucifora from the status of a mere assistant.
Would Deans want a former rival for the coaching job to become part of the coaching staff? That might be too close for comfort.
By conducting a review O'Neill has signalled there will be changes. How great the change will be will depend largely on the result of the final Test of the year against Wales in Cardiff on Sunday.
Wales is looming as a watershed for the Wallabies - coaches, players and administrators alike.
But my guess is that the ARU already has a fair idea of what it intends to do.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,...016959,00.html
If Deans is having issues with the senior player group, imagine how Nucifora will go. Some of the current Wallabies were part of the group that gave him it in the neck at the Brumbies.
Personally I hope it happens, somebody has to ensure the players harden up and lose their sense of entitlement, putting Nucifora into the coaching panel would signal very clearly the intent of management.
Possibly this issue could be addressed in a press statement, naming player names.
'Stirling Mortlock, Matt Giteau and George Smith were senior players at the Brumbies when David suffered a mutiny by the players. We don't anticipate any problems'
C'mon the![]()
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Oddly enough wonder if Deans problems could be traced back to the Brumbies contingent - sorry muddie nothing against Brumbies but there does seem to be a cultural change required - especially in the backs - should explain that it could be a clash of ideas on how to do stuff on the pitch - where one idea is ingrained and Deans is trying to instil a new philosophy - out of all the franchises the Brumbies have the most clearly defined structure and culture.
61 years between Grand SlamsWas the wait worth it - Ya betta baby
If it is a case of change for changes sake, scapegoat or predetermined investigation, whatever, then I think long serving and suffering Jim Williams should be feeling very nervous and Richard Graham may well be the second if required with his move to the West already announced. That would give the ARU the chance to move him sideways for a while without losing him to Australia.
Robbie isn't going anywhere (and I for one don't believe he should) and the Scrum has improved out of sight since Patricio Noriega has come onto the Staff.
The lineouts and skills in general however have been little more than poor in recent matchesand a wake up is definately required there.
Much of this will come down to politics of course of whether the right men for the job will a) work with Deans/a kiwi etc and b) check their ego at the gate in not being the top dog when they may have aspirations to be so.
There are many good Australian Coachs around the Rugby world, it may be time for some of them to answer their Nation's call.
"Bloody oath we did!"
Nathan Sharpe, Legend.
I wonder how much of the problem is the cultural difference between Kiwi rugby and Aussie rugby. We play different and therefore Deans' structures mightn't suit our culture very well. Certainly his system works well, but if the cattle he works with don't have the right skill set he'll need to enforce that change from the grassroots. That'll take a bloody long time, and a serious shitfight with the NSWRU
C'mon the![]()
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Or just more players coming from Kiwi Coached S14 teams...![]()
"Bloody oath we did!"
Nathan Sharpe, Legend.
4 years ago we had a crippling prop shortage. Now we have fairly healthy prop stocks (I am looking forward to seeing how Tim Fairbrother does). Scrum didn't seem so good against Scotland in the 20 odd minutes I saw but it was good against Ireland, it has been good against South Africa and it hasn't been completely smashed for a while. Maybe in the next 4 years we can get a few more good locks and some halfway decent backs.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
Yes, well, time will tell what value O'Neill's assurances are worth to Deans. Historically they've been worth bugger all, my favourite being "I have been advocate of an intermediate competition between club rugby and Super Rugby for a long time. I have also said that the competition must be viable and sustainable, and that we will review it at the end of the year. That does not mean it will be dismantled, nor does it mean it will not change."
How big a loss to Wales would be required to make it a lower point than losing at all to "lowly" Scotland?
I think everyone is getting a tad carried away with it all just quietly, these are teams filled with experienced and professional players, just like Australia, it should come as no surprise when we do drop a few matches IMHO.
"Bloody oath we did!"
Nathan Sharpe, Legend.