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Global market produces a new order
David Kirk in Paris | October 2, 2007
The world of rugby will never be the same. A seismic shift has occurred.
The group matches of the sixth World Cup are over and I am gobsmacked.
It is not that hard in hindsight to rationalise what has happened, but before the tournament I had no idea what was happening to the nations' playing strengths.
I didn't know Argentina were simply stronger, better organised and mentally tougher than any of the UK nations. I didn't know Tonga had the discipline and tactical nous to get within five points of South Africa and be a genuine chance of making the quarter-finals. Or that Fiji were about to return from 20 years in the World Cup wilderness.
For every new rugby power rising, an old power has sunk. To sum it up: Anglo-Saxons and Celts have given way to Pacific Islanders and Latins. The pupil has become the master and there is no going back. It is not a matter of Argentina, Tonga and Fiji being lucky, of having once-in-a-generation great teams at the right time.
No, real and lasting changes have occurred and they will remain. The future looks bleak for the once mighty "Home Nations".
The root cause of this re-ordering of world rugby strength is the professionalistion and globalisation of the game. None of the leading players of Argentina, Tonga and Fiji play rugby regularly in their own countries. Instead they ply their trade as professionals in the great rugby competitions of the world.
It is clear that what protected the UK nations and kept them in the top flight of world rugby had more to do with the handicaps on the emerging nations - poor funding, coaching and strong regional competitions - than anything else.
The rugby market has done its job. The world's best players, from wherever they hail, have found their way to the world's best competitions under the world's best coaches. Little money for Pacific Island and South American rugby development has become irrelevant.
The sponsors and national unions in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Europe are paying for the development of their players now.
There could not be a more delicious irony. Minor nations, sorely neglected by an IRB dominated by the traditional powers, have kept two (and very nearly three) big players out of the the cup's knock-out stages.
Law changes have also contributed to the rise of the new powers. With the ball in play more and a premium on aggressive defence and tough backs, the explosive athleticism of the Pacific island players becomes more effective. The discipline and organisation of professional coaching has done the rest. The Wallabies were little tested. All the top players played well, but the lack of depth was clear to see. Berrick Barnes is a fine young player, but the return of Stephen Larkham is crucial if the team is to go all the way. Their quarter-final opponents, England, have been mostly rubbish.
In four group matches the All Blacks hardly broke a sweat and we know nothing more about their prospects of winning the sixth World Cup than we knew before the tournament started.
The All Blacks are technically ahead of the rest of the world and for speed and fitness they are approached by only the Wallabies and the Springboks. They have more depth than any other team. But we knew all this a month ago.
First they must get past a desperate France, but I can't see them having too much trouble. The French will throw everything at them but the psychological mountain is too high for them. It is sad for them as hosts and sad for the tournament, but the French are going out in Cardiff.
The Springboks will beat Fiji because they have genuine class, whereas Wales do not. The Springboks are getting better and better and loom as genuine contenders for the cup.
Argentina are set for their first semi-final. Scotland are earnest but ordinary. So long as Argentina stick to the game plan they have used so successfully thus far, they should win well.
David Kirk was captain of the 1987 World Cup-winning All Blacks
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