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Form in 2011
It has been three years in a row now that the Crusaders haven’t won a Super Rugby trophy and that is a first. In sixteen years they have only failed to make the finals three times and have brought home 7 championships since 1996. There is a winning culture in Christchurch. But can they maintain it? Sure you would be crazy not to think the Crusaders will be in the six come finals time, but do they have enough to take another title and break their ‘drought’?
For the fourth straight year the Cantabs have won their NZ provincial tournament. With so many All Blacks unavailable for the ITM Cup, that speaks volumes for the class that the Crusaders have waiting in the wings. This will have them well set up for season 2012. Unfortunately their Championship division side, Tasman, came dead last in their tournament.
Comings and Goings
The big issue for the Crusaders is not so much who has come and who has gone but who is available. Most of the old faces are back with the squad but it will have a decidedly different look and feel to it with both Richie McCaw and Dan Carter unlikely to play much of a role in the first half of the tournament. Add to this the departures of a few familiar faces and it will be interesting to see what the Crusaders serve up in 2012. Leading the list of outgoing players are veteran locking pair Chris Jack and Brad Thorn. Between them this amounts to 70 odd years and almost 200 Super Rugby caps (not to mention Test caps) lost to the Crusaders. The other big name departure is Sonny Bill Williams who has joined the Chiefs for 2012. Samoan international scrum-half Kahn Fotuali’i has also moved on.
Brad Thorn: Apparently a good bloke off the rugby field.
Despite these losses the Crusaders have mostly kept their recruiting in house with a handful of recruits from their successful ITM Cup side. The only notable new signing is former All Black Tom Donnelly from the Highlanders. Donnelly didn’t play much rugby in 2011 with a poor return from a knee injury seeing him on the periphery at the Highlanders. However he is now well rested and a return to his stellar form from 2010 could be on the cards.
Players to watch out for...
The first thing to coming to mind is who is going to replace Carter and McCaw while they make their returns from injury. Having spent a chunk of last season injured we are already very familiar with McCaw’s understudy, Matt Todd. Todd was the big find of the 2011 season for the Crusaders. If he put on a Richie mask you wouldn’t even notice the difference. The production line continues. However Todd won’t get as easy a ride as he had in 2011. He isn’t an unknown quantity, he won’t be underestimated and there will be expectation- the classic symptoms of second year syndrome.
More please!
For Carter the replacement might be just as easy. While the Crusaders have lost a few promising fly-halves in Colin Slade and Stephen Brett in the last few years, there is always a unpolished gem ready to stand up. In 2012 that will be Tyler Bleyendaal. Bleyendaal will be 22 in 2012 and has already built an impressive rugby resume with captaincy of the New Zealand JWC winning side in 2010 and an ITM Cup Premiership winners medal with Canterbury. He has impressed at age grade level and provincial level where he has had some very dominant packs, but how will he cope with the pressures of Super Rugby?
Keep an eye out for the four Whitelocks of the apocalypse. Will the quartet make the field at the same time this season? The Crusaders will be sporting the same kind of diversity of surnames as the Welsh test team. Jones, Jones, Williams, Jones, Thomas, Evans, Jones, Williams, Eva.....
If you happen to be holidaying in Cook Islands, look out for Zac Guildford. He isn’t easy to miss- he’s the one who is drunk, naked and bleeding. Sounds like he would fit in well at Club Bayview.
The Strengths
As always the Crusaders are sporting an international standard pack. Five of their eight are current All Blacks and there are two former All Blacks in there too. They will likely have the strongest scrum in the competition in 2012 as well as being up there with the Cheetahs (Smith, Brussow, Johnson) and the Force (Hodgson, Pocock, McCalman) as the most competitive at the breakdown. Tom Donnelly is excellent in the air and should keep their line-out pretty respectable too.
With all of this international experience comes a squad full of potential leaders. In addition to McCaw you have Kieran Read, Corey Flynn, George Whitelock, Dan Carter, Tom Donnelly and a number of others more than capable of leading the team. Although you’d have to bank on Read as the back-up captain to McCaw, any of these guys could step up to lead the team. Add this to their winning culture and you would back the Crusaders to pull it together when things get a bit hairy.
The Weaknesses
The depth of the Crusaders, while remaining pretty impressive, just doesn’t invoke the same fear it used to. A few injuries could cause some big problems- mainly at hooker and fly-half. The squad will be a bit stretched while Carter is out and the injury curse always strikes you when it hurts the most.
The big weakness with the Crusaders looks to be the 9-10-12 axis. Ellis blows hot and cold, Carter will be out for the early rounds and may get rushed back too soon, Bleyendaal is very green and could be susceptible to pressure, and among the likely inside centres there isn’t really a ‘ball player’ who can take the pressure off. The Crusaders have a devastating back three and will always punish on the counter-attack but if you take away options at 9 and 10 you could throw a big spanner in the works of the Crusader machine. However, with the calibre of their players it will take a lot more than that.
Prediction for 2012
The Crusaders are always there or thereabouts. These last couple of seasons it has taken a late season charge for them to make the finals and with Carter and McCaw out early you can expect more of the same. I wouldn’t expect them to top their pool as they did in 2011, however, and it may be a tough run to the final. The South Islanders will be relieved to have a home ground in Christchurch this year after AAMI stadium was put out of action by the earthquakes. How will the team respond to that? Will they be better rested due to less travel? Will they be lacking that little bit of extra motivation in ‘doing it for those doing it tough in Christchurch’? Would the Crusaders have beaten the Reds this year if they hadn’t done so much travel? The answers might come in 2012. I think this season will see the Crusaders land in 5th.
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