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Wallabies out of firing line
Wayne Smith | December 03, 2008
Article from: The Australian
AUSTRALIA potentially has dodged not one bullet but two, the draw for the 2011 World Cup tilting the odds in favour of the Wallabies not meeting the host New Zealand or defending champion South Africa until the final.
That is, of course, if performances in three years hold true to current rankings and, as Wallabies coach Robbie Deans was quick to point out, World Cup tournaments are no respecters of seedings or history.
"The World Cup is the ultimate expression of what is good about the game," Deans said. "It's on the day. It doesn't matter what's been before."
Still, as draws go, the Wallabies could hardly have hoped for a better one. They will meet Ireland, Italy and two qualifiers from Europe and America in the pool rounds and should go through the preliminary stage undefeated. At this stage the qualifiers would be Romania and the US on present rankings, but could just as likely be Georgia and Canada.
That said, they needed some last-gasp Quade Cooper magic to put Italy away 30-20 in Padua just three weeks ago. And they have had two heart-stoppers too many against Ireland in past World Cups, having to rely on a late David Campese try to win 19-18 in 1991 and then having to watch with bated breath as a David Humphreys field goal attempt just missed in Melbourne in 2003 when they hung on to win 17-16.
Once out of the pool stage, the Wallabies most likely will meet Wales, the Six Nations champion and the one European side to beat them over the past month, in the quarter-final - assuming Wales or, for that matter, Fiji don't cause havoc in the Springboks-headed pool D.
Needless to say, it took very little time in London for 'D' to morph into Death. Although Welsh coach Warren Gatland insisted yesterday he was excited about being in the toughest pool.
"It is a great draw and we are excited about it," Gatland said.
"Look at the World Cup last year - the winners of the competition came from the toughest pool.
"If we come out of it, then we are in pretty good shape for the quarter-finals as we will have played some tough rugby, as long as we don't pick up too many injuries.
If the Wallabies account for Wales, then, riding the assumption that all teams perform to their ranking, their would meet France - or quite possibly their nemesis side, England - in the semi-final. The winner of that semi-final will face the winner of the other heavyweight semi-final between the All Blacks and Springboks.
Deans, who doesn't respond to hypotheticals at the best of times, dead-batted his response when asked about the draw.
"What we make of it at the time," he said. "It depends on us performing well and earning the right."
And the seedings holding? "Which they never do," he said.
One thing he was prepared to predict, however, was that the 2011 tournament in New Zealand would be the most ferociously fought, and not just during the knock-out stages.
"I suspect this will be the most competitive World Cup ever, based on history," Deans said.
"Look at the last one. You look at the movement of teams and you talk about seedings and rankings and expectations, but the last World Cup tipped that all on its head.
"And you look at the way teams are developing and equalising and professionalism does that.
"As some of the previously lesser-profiled teams' players get access to professional rugby, they'll come back into their international teams on a much more level footing."
Nor did he waste much time on the southern hemisphere's supposed edge over the northern, pointing out that England and France fought out one of the semi-finals at last year's tournament.
As always, the pool rounds will throw up some fascinating contests but none will have quite the sting of the opening match of the tournament, host New Zealand against the side that eliminated it from last year's World Cup, France.
The purpose of doing the draw so early is to give New Zealand organisers time to sort through the massive logistical problems associated with holding a tournament of this size in a country of only four million people. Most, if not all, centres will lack the hotel accommodation needed to cope with the massive influx of overseas supporters.
Proximity alone should ensure the Wallabies have by far the biggest contingent of foreign supporters following them.
On top of that, there is the Deans factor. The Wallabies coach is a hugely popular and respected figure in his home town Christchurch and there is no doubt the entire Canterbury region has adopted Australia as its second-favourite team.
That raises the intriguing question of whether the New Zealand organisers will seek to cash in on the Deans factor by basing the Wallabies in Christchurch, where they surely would pack out Jade Stadium for most of their pool matches, or whether the NZRU's paranoia about him stealing the Webb Ellis trophy away from the All Blacks will see the Australian side banished to the boonies.
"That will be interesting," Deans said. "There will be interest in the Wallabies in Christchurch for obvious reason, so I would imagine it would be in the interests of the tournament organisers to feed off that. But who knows?"
If the Wallabies do find themselves in Deans Country, they should expect their off-field activities to be even more hair-raising than some of their matches.
"Jetboating will be part of the team kit," quipped Deans, who knows every bit of wild jetboating water within a day's drive of Christchurch.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...015656,00.html
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