Super 14 : Road to the play-offs

[AndyS]

Talk about a race that is wide open. The results in Round 10 mean that, mathematically, 13 of the 14 teams still have a chance of reaching the play-offs.

Now, we all know that is stretching it, but what is more interesting is how the top end of the competition in shaping up.

The top four teams have all lost three times already. It is worth noting that six times in the 13 years since inception of the professional era, the team ultimately winning the Super 12/14 had lost three of their league matches.

Another fact worth taking note of is that when the Bulls won their title in 2007, they had lost four league matches that year.

Now, back to the present.

It is going to be one hell of a run in to the play-offs, simply because so many of the big guns still have to play each other.

It all starts with the top-of-the-table Chiefs against the third-placed Bulls in Pretoria this week. And then the Chiefs also still face the fourth-placed Hurricanes a few weeks down the road.

The Sharks, currently second, have a bye this week and then have to face the Waratahs and Bulls in the coming weeks.

And so it goes on. Needless to say, a few teams are going to knock each out of the race in the last month of league action and - once again - it may go down to the wire, the last week of league action on May 15 and 16.

It may well come down to the very last league match of the season, when the Sharks host the Bulls in Durban on May 16, to sort out the final places.

So, let's take a look at what's in stall for each of the 14 teams!

Chiefs:
Current position: 1st
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 2: Stormers, Cape Town
May 9: v Hurricanes, Hamilton
May 15: v Brumbies, Hamilton

Sharks:
Current position: 2nd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 24/25: Bye
May 2: v Highlanders, Durban
May 9: v Waratahs, Durban
May 16: v Bulls, Durban

Bulls:
Current position: 3rd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Chiefs, Pretoria
May 2: v Force, Pretoria
May 9: v Cheetahs, Pretoria
May 16: v Sharks, Durban

Hurricanes:
Current position: 4th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Brumbies, Wellington
May 1: v Blues, Wellington
May 9: v Chiefs, Hamilton
May 16: v Reds, Brisbane

Blues:
Current position: 5th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Reds, Albany
May 1: v Hurricanes, Wellington
May 9: v Brumbies, Canberra
May 16: v Crusaders, Auckland

Waratahs:
Current position: 6th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 24/25: Bye
May 1: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Sharks, Durban
May 15: v Lions, Johannesburg

Brumbies:
Current position: 7th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Hurricanes, Wellington
May 2: v Reds, Brisbane
May 9: v Blues, Canberra
May 15: v Chiefs, Hamilton

Crusaders:
Current position: 8th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
May 1: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 8: v Reds, Christchurch
May 16: v Blues, Auckland

Force:
Current position: 9th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Lions, Perth
May 2: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 9: v Stormers, Cape Town
May 16: v Highlanders, Perth

Highlanders:
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Stormers, Dunedin
May 2: v Sharks, Durban
May 8: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 16: v Force, Perth

Lions:
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Force, Perth
May 1: v Crusaders, Johannesburg
May 8: v Highlanders, Johannesburg
May 15: v Waratahs, Johannesburg

Stormers:
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Highlanders, Dunedin
May 2: v Chiefs, Cape Town
May 9: v Force, Cape Town
May 16: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein

Reds:
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Blues, Albany
May 2: v Brumbies, Brisbane
May 8: v Crusaders, Christchurch
May 16: v Hurricanes, Brisbane

Cheetahs:
Current position: 14
Best possible finish: 7th
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Crusaders, Bloemfontein
May 1: v Waratahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 16: v Stormers, Bloemfontein

http://www.rugby365.com/tournaments/...ws/1629900.htm

[mudskipper]

Well at a quick count, I ended up with the following results come semi final time…

Crusaders 42
Chiefs 41
Sharks 39
Bulls 38
Hurricanes 38
Brumbies 36
Waratahs 36
Blues 34
Force 32


Certainly this is just unadulterated crystal ball gazing… Loosely based on current team form home and away advantage and the odd bonus point if the team has been picking them up every now and then…

And the Crusaders winning all their 4 matches… The Blues in Auckland are the only ones who could possibly stop them giving the Chiefs a home final perhaps…

[Happy]

play off's???? please this isn't the super bowl we're talking about.. leave the phrase play off's to that sepo of ours Larry

Finals !

[mudskipper]

Going by some of these matches ups coming after this weekends up sets the semis are still wide open for the Australian teams... Many top teams still having to play each other especially the NZ teams and Sharks Bulls in week 14... I've adjusted the order from Andys first post... However its looking like it could be a NZ final if the Hurricanes defeat the Chiefs week 13...


Hurricanes:
Current position: 1st were 4th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Brumbies, Wellington WON
May 1: v Blues, Wellington
May 9: v Chiefs, Hamilton
May 16: v Reds, Brisbane

Bulls:
Current position: 2nd were 3rd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Chiefs, Pretoria WON
May 2: v Force, Pretoria
May 9: v Cheetahs, Pretoria
May 16: v Sharks, Durban

Chiefs:
Current position: 3rd were 1st
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Bulls, Pretoria LOST
May 2: Stormers, Cape Town
May 9: v Hurricanes, Hamilton
May 15: v Brumbies, Hamilton

Sharks:
Current position: 4th were 2nd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 24/25: Bye
May 2: v Highlanders, Durban
May 9: v Waratahs, Durban
May 16: v Bulls, Durban

Blues:
Current position: 5th were 5th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Reds, Albany LOST +2 bonus points
May 1: v Hurricanes, Wellington
May 9: v Brumbies, Canberra
May 16: v Crusaders, Auckland

Force:
Current position: 6th were 9th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Lions, Perth WON
May 2: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 9: v Stormers, Cape Town
May 16: v Highlanders, Perth

Waratahs:
Current position: 7th were 6th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 24/25: Bye
May 1: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Sharks, Durban
May 15: v Lions, Johannesburg

Crusaders:
Current position: 8th were 8th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein LOST
May 1: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 8: v Reds, Christchurch
May 16: v Blues, Auckland

Brumbies:
Current position: 9th were 7th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Hurricanes, Wellington LOST
May 2: v Reds, Brisbane
May 9: v Blues, Canberra
May 15: v Chiefs, Hamilton

[robyn <3]

I want the Cheetahs to down the Tahs next week... A lot... Please...

[James]

I want the Cheetahs to down the Tahs next week... A lot... Please...

Waste of a wish. Focus on the Force beating the Bulls.

[robyn <3]

Waste of a wish. Focus on the Force beating the Bulls.

Sorry. I wish for the force to win instead

But if I get 2 wishes my next one would be the Cheetahs to thrash the Waratahs!

[Egan]

Ok I have been doing some research for possible finals in NZ, which I will be going to if we make it.

There is a bus that can take us directly from Auckland International Airport to Hamilton if we play the Chiefs. I am hoping that we play Saturday...We are only 2 points from the finals with three games left. The results went in our favour on Saturday Night. I am daring to dream! Lol

Might head to the Rosemount Hotel next Saturday Night for the game against the Bulls.

[robyn <3]

I've changed my mind, I want the Waratahs to win so that instead of having to go overseas for the final (which I have no chance of doing) I can just go to Sydney, which I can and probably would do! What would be BETTER was if we got us a home game but I'll settle for Sydney as second best... Go the tahs

[James]

I've changed my mind, I want the Waratahs to win so that instead of having to go overseas for the final (which I have no chance of doing) I can just go to Sydney, which I can and probably would do! What would be BETTER was if we got us a home game but I'll settle for Sydney as second best... Go the tahs

If both the Force and Tahs won the final three then the Force would get the home final (depending on other results) so you wouldn't have to go to Sydney anyway.

[Egan]

Depends on the bonus point situation as welll..

[travelling_gerry]

April 26, 2009 - 4:49PM

The 2009 Super 14 is an unofficial lottery after another round of shocks, despair and record-setting rugby across the southern hemisphere.

The Hurricanes soared to the top of the ladder with a 56-7 demolition of the injury-ravaged Brumbies in Wellington as the Western Force emerged as the most likely Australian side to squeeze into the playoffs.

The Force climbed from ninth to sixth with their 55-14 bonus-point triumph over the Lions at Subiaco Oval on Friday night.

Not even confirmation that Wallaby Drew Mitchell was heading to the Waratahs next season could dampen the spirit of the Force, who ran in eight tries to post their highest score and biggest-ever win.

The victory was just the tonic ahead of the Force's make-or-break tour of South Africa.

The Force realistically need to topple the second-placed Bulls in Pretoria on Saturday and then the unpredictable but out-of-contention Stormers in Cape Town before returning to Perth for a last-round encounter with the Highlanders.

"It's an intriguing competition so we are still alive, but we can only take it one game at a time," Force coach John Mitchell said.

The Force are likely to welcome back influential No.8 Richard Brown from an ankle injury for the crunch game with the Bulls and will no doubt be feeling better about their finals prospects than the Brumbies, who slumped to ninth after suffering their worst-ever Super defeat.

The Brumbies' heavy loss raised the stakes for Saturday night's derby with Queensland, who will fancy their chances after pulling off the upset of the season in Auckland on Saturday.

The Reds placed the Brumbies on high alert when they snapped a three-year, 20-match road drought with a stunning 31-24 win over the Blues.

"We've got some question-asking to happen over the course of the next few days," Brumbies coach Andy Friend said.

"The Reds have obviously done pretty well to go to Auckland and have that win and it will lift their confidence and they will be a formidable side next week.

"We need to pick ourselves up after that loss and make sure we're ready."

Friend said there was "every chance" the Brumbies would regain the services of key backs Gene Fairbanks and Mark Gerrard.

"We will wait and see on the medicals on Monday," he said.

Despite the heavy loss, the Brumbies are still very much in the playoff hunt with just seven points separating the top eight teams entering the final three rounds.

Nostradamus would struggle to predict the final make-up of the top four.

In a complete reshuffle at the top over the weekend, the Bulls moved to second and relegated the Chiefs from first to third when they broke the New Zealanders' six-match winning streak with a 33-27 home success on Sunday morning Australian time.

The Sharks dropped from second to fourth and the NSW Waratahs from sixth to seventh as they enjoyed the last two byes of the tournament.

The Waratahs, with four losses from their last six games, will resume their faltering campaign on Saturday against the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.

They probably need to become the first overseas team to win three Super matches in South Africa in a season to be secure of a finals berth.

The last-placed Cheetahs will be anything but pushovers after putting a massive dent in the Crusaders' playoff hopes with a 20-13 boilover.

The unexpected win ended the Crusaders' five-match winning streak and left the defending champions in eighth spot, four points adrift of the four.

© 2009 AAP

http://news.rugbyheaven.com.au/break...0426-aj8z.html

[James]

Depends on the bonus point situation as welll..

This is true of course but what is the likely hood of the Tahs getting 4 try bonus points on the road. They can't even do it in Sydney

[GIGS20]

We win by more than 7, Canes win by more than 7.......GIGS is a happy boy!

[travelling_gerry]

Hurricanes:
Current position: 1st
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 12th
Remaining matches:
May 1: v Blues, Wellington
May 9: v Chiefs, Hamilton
May 16: v Reds, Brisbane

Bulls:
Current position: 2nd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 12th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Force, Pretoria
May 9: v Cheetahs, Pretoria
May 16: v Sharks, Durban

Chiefs:
Current position: 3rd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 2: Stormers, Cape Town
May 9: v Hurricanes, Hamilton
May 15: v Brumbies, Hamilton

Sharks:
Current position: 4th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Highlanders, Durban
May 9: v Waratahs, Durban
May 16: v Bulls, Durban

Blues:
Current position: 5th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 1: v Hurricanes, Wellington
May 9: v Brumbies, Canberra
May 16: v Crusaders, Auckland

Western Force:
Current position: 6th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 9: v Stormers, Cape Town
May 16: v Highlanders, Perth

Waratahs:
Current position: 7th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 1: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Sharks, Durban
May 15: v Lions, Johannesburg

Crusaders:
Current position: 8th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 1: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 8: v Reds, Christchurch
May 16: v Blues, Auckland

Brumbies:
Current position: 9th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Reds, Brisbane
May 9: v Blues, Canberra
May 15: v Chiefs, Hamilton

Highlanders:
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Sharks, Durban
May 8: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 16: v Force, Perth

Stormers:
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Chiefs, Cape Town
May 9: v Force, Cape Town
May 16: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein

Lions:
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
May 1: v Crusaders, Johannesburg
May 8: v Highlanders, Johannesburg
May 15: v Waratahs, Johannesburg

Reds:
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
May 2: v Brumbies, Brisbane
May 8: v Crusaders, Christchurch
May 16: v Hurricanes, Brisbane

Cheetahs:
Current position: 14
Best possible finish: 10th
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
May 1: v Waratahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 16: v Stormers, Bloemfontein