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In an intriguing twist of fate this year’s Rugby World Cup finalists are none other than the same finalists in the inaugural Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. The only difference being the make-up of the semi-finals with a northern hemisphere semi and a southern hemisphere semi. There isn’t just the prospect of a grand final appearance on the line but also bragging rights amongst the other 6 Nations and soon to be 4 Nations teams.
France and Wales will be the first to kick off in a hugely exciting semi-final showdown. This will only be Wales’ second semi-final with the possibility of a maiden grand final appearance bringing nervous anticipation to the Welsh faithful. France have two grand final appearances to their name and have a fair bit of experience in winning and losing RWC semi-finals.
Recent history between these two sides has heavily favoured the Tri Colores with seven wins in their last ten games. Wales have not defeated France since their 2008 Grand Slam. Yet Wales come into this game as slight favourites with the bookies and they will be able to count on the support of the host nation, who will be desperate not to play France again. Interestingly, Wales and France have never played against each other in a RWC match and this will be their first at a truly neutral venue.
Both teams come into this game buoyed by their best performances of the tournament. For France, however, this performance was head and shoulders above what they had been dishing up to that point. An unconvincing win over Japan coupled with losses to Tonga and New Zealand would hardly have inspired France fans. But you are only as good as your last game and last weekend’s game has erased the others from memory.
Wales stepped up a gear as they completely out-classed their Celtic opponents. They have been bubbling away nicely and building momentum to put them into overdrive for the semi and grand finals.
French coach, Marc Lievremont, has stuck with the team that brought home the goods against England last weekend. Lievremont is quite fortunate to have the luxury of wheeling the same team out two weekends in a row. The back row trio of Dusautoir, Bonnaire and Harinordoquy were immense and were able to ensure quick ball for the French backs to run amok. Morgan Parra and Dimitri Yachvili controlled the tempo exceptionally well and allowed their outside men, particularly Aurelien Rougerie, to shine. You can expect the French will try to repeat that performance and fluster the Welsh with an early onslaught.
The Welsh got through last weekend relatively unscathed and have made few changes to their line-up. The loss of the dynamic young playmaker Rhys Priestland hurts, however Wales have the luxury of both James Hook and Stephen Jones to take his place. Hook will start the match. Fortune smiled on hard working second-rower Luke Charteris, who looked like he might have missed this week with injury. Other than the Priestland replacement, Wales’ line-up is unchanged. Coach Warren Gatland will want repeat performances of some of last weekend’s epic performances. Leigh Halfpenny was exceptional and punished the Irish for their uninspiring kicking. George North was sensational and will be a go to player against the French. Mike Phillips does what Mike Phillips does best- hard tackling and clever sniping runs. His try was pure brilliance. In the forwards, Luke Charteris tackled his heart out while Gethin Jenkins and Sam Warburton both made nuisances of themselves.
So who is going to win this one, how and by how much?
Despite the recent history, Wales are favourites with the bookies. That makes a lot of sense. Wales outplayed Ireland for 80 minutes while the French were arguably under the pump in the second half of their match. There was also a telling difference in the looks on the faces of each team. The French had eyes of fury. They looked like they wanted to punish the English and ran at them with as much a desire to run through players as run around them. The momentum shift when they realised they were 16 points ahead was significant. Wales, on the other hand, looked genuinely like they were having a whale of a time out there from the second minute try right through to the final whistle. They didn’t seem to be relying on answering their critics or smashing a hated opposition for motivation. You don’t see that enjoyment all that often in tournament rugby and you would imagine that if they can re-create that feeling and not let fear of losing take over, they will take France down on Saturday.
It’s hard to know how this one will pan out as neither team had too many questions asked of them last weekend. The key will be winning the first 10 minutes. Last weekend the first 10 minutes set the tone for each of the two games. Early points were scored by the winners and it forced unimaginative teams to try to conjure up point scoring opportunities. Neither team will want to play catch up. Purely based on the look of the France set piece and the weather forecast, the onus will be more on Wales to start well. Having said that, the way France flagged in the second half against the English indicates that some big chances for Wales may come in the last 10 to 20 minutes. However Wales has to ensure that the French don’t build themselves a lead, lock the game down and conserve their energy.
Typically the French play one excellent game per World Cup. They probably fancy their chances in this one and the game will come down to whether or not they get complacent. I don’t think they will. I expect Wales to put in an almighty fight, but not enough to suppress a storming French outfit. France by 4.
Teams:
Wales: Leigh Halfpenny; George North, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Shane Williams; James Hook, Mike Phillips; Toby Faletau, Sam Warburton (captain), Dan Lydiate; Alun-Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris; Adam Jones, Huw Bennett, Gethin Jenkins. Replacements: Lloyd Burns, Paul James, Bradley Davies, Ryan Jones, Lloyd Williams, Stephen Jones, Scott Williams.
France: Maxime Medard; Vincent Clerc, Aurelien Rougerie, Maxime Mermoz, Alexis Palisson; Morgan Parra, Dimitri Yachvili; Imanol Harinordoquy, Julien Bonnaire, Thierry Dusautoir (capt); Lionel Nallet, Pascal Pape; Nicolas Mas, William Servat, Jean-Baptiste Poux. Replacements: TBA
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Originally Posted by James
